Ian

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Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Friday Evening Update

TD 9 in central Caribbean
TD 9 is fighting shear with deep convection well to the east of the circulation. Shear is expected to weaken and development will commence on Saturday.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 71.5W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Afternoon
Image

Tropicast: IR Satellite Friday Night
Image


Tropical Weather Forecast:
TD 9 will become tropical storm Ian by Saturday. It is expected to cross western Cuba and possibly affect southwestern Florida by next Tuesday / Wednesday as a hurricane.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Saturday Midday Update

Ian slowly developing
Deep convection is building and Ian will become more organized soon as it approaches western Cuba.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite Friday Afternoon
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian is forecast to cross western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into early next week. Interests on the Florida west coast should prepare now.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Sunday Midday Update

Ian may rapidly deepen soon
Ian will be moving toward an area of less shear and remain over warm sea water in the northwestern Caribbean. This combination will possibly bring about rapid deepening phase. Satellite imagery is now showing much better organization over the past few hours as banding is taking shape as well as convection wrapping around the circulation.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian is forecast to cross western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into early next week. Models still diverge in a few days and NHC is basically taking the middle of the models track. Interests on the Florida west coast and panhandle should prepare now.

:idea: There is potential for the following effects to be seen - Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes / strong rip
currents.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Sunday Evening Update

Tropical storm watches posted for the Florida Lower Keys
Satellite imagery early this evening shows convection continuing to develop around Ian. There is still potential for Ian to go through a rapid deepening phase before making landfall over western Cuba Monday Night. Ian will pass to the west of the Cayman Islands during the day Monday.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 80.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian is forecast to cross western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Models still diverge in a few days and NHC is basically taking the middle of the models track. Interests on the Florida west coast and panhandle should prepare now.

:idea: There is potential for the following effects to be seen - Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes / strong rip
currents.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Monday Evening Update

Ian strengthening
No eye is visible on the satellite imagery, but Ian displays an organized, large circulation across the western Caribbean. Outer bands are across Cuba and over southern Florida.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian will make landfall tonight over western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Models now take Ian just offshore of Tampa Bay by midweek and slowly move up the west coast. See the official NHC track. This is a life threatening situation!

:!: Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes / strong rip
currents will be seen on the western coast of Florida. All preparations need to be completed soon as possible.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tuesday Morning Update

Ian over western Cuba
Ian strengthened overnight and made landfall several hours ago. High winds and storm surge are being seen over western Cuba as well as torrential rainfall.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 83.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNE OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
ABOUT 130 MI...240 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models made a significant change overnight shifting south. If this scenario plays out it will mean winds will be blowing out of Tampa Bay instead of up Tampa Bay reducing the surge concerns. This would place the more severe conditions just south of Tampa. This is one model run so be extremely vigilant to the Hurricane Center's official advisory. This is a life threatening situation!

:!: Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes / strong rip
currents will be seen on the western coast of Florida.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tuesday Evening Update

Ian headed toward SW Florida
Ian has moved off of western Cuba and is now moving toward SW Florida. Hurricane force winds, flooding rainfall, storm surge, and isolated tornadoes are now expected over the Florida peninsula. The worst of the conditions will be seen in SW Florida near the point of landfall, but effects will be spread far from the center.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 83.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM S OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Key West Radar 5:10 pm edt
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models have indeed kept the farther southeast trend and the hurricane is now expected to make landfall over southwestern Florida south of Tampa. Catastrophic effects will be seen near the SW Florida coast to the interior of the peninsula. Wind damage and widespread flooding is to be expected. This is a life threatening situation!

:!: Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes / strong rip
currents will be seen on the western coast of Florida.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tropicast: Key West Radar 9:10 pm edt
Image
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Wednesday Morning Update

Ian rapidly intensifying
Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently found higher winds and a pressure drop. Ian is now a strong category four hurricane.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 82.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar 7:34 am edt
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian will make landfall on the SW coast of Florida this afternoon and move across the peninsula near Orlando. It will reemerge off of the northeast coast of Florida and make a second landfall near the GA / SC border late Thursday night as a tropical storm or possibly minimal hurricane. This is a life threatening situation!

:!: Strong winds / heavy rainfall / flooding / storm surge / isolated tornadoes
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Midday Radar
Image
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar 3:15 pm edt
Image

Tropicast: Radar 3:15 pm edt close-up
Image
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Wednesday Night Update

Ian inland
Reports from Ian: A WeatherFlow station in Grove City recently reported sustained winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) and a wind gust of 128 mph
(208 km/h). A University of Florida Coastal Monitoring Program wind tower recently reported sustained winds of 89 mph with a gust to 114 mph

Ian made landfall on the mainland southwest Florida peninsula just south of Punta Gorda near Pirate Harbor 3:05pm.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 81.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar 8:30pm edt
Image

Tropicast: Closer-up Radar 8:30pm edt
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian will be crossing the Florida peninsula tonight and emerge off of the NE Florida coast Thursday afternoon. It will make another landfall as a tropical storm Friday afternoon on the southern coast of South Carolina. Storm surge is a concern in these areas as well as flooding from very heavy rainfall. Damaging winds will also occur along the path and farther from the center in rain bands where isolated tornadoes may occur.
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Thursday Night Update

Ian moving toward South Carolina
Reports from Ian: St. Augustine Beach Pier recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph.

The satellite presentation of Ian is very poor. It is badly sheared and deep convection remains north of the center.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Thursday Morning
Image

Tropicast: Radar Thursday Morning
Image

Tropicast: IR Satellite Thursday Night
Image

Tropicast: Radar 9:30pm edt
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian is offshore of the NE Florida coast and will be moving NNW and make landfall again on the coast of South Carolina by early Friday afternoon.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Ian

Post by Tropical Inspector »

Friday Afternoon Update

Ian nearing the northern South Carolina coast
A WeatherFlow station at Morris Island lighthouse recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h).


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Radar Friday Afternoon
Image


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ian will weaken rapidly this evening. Tropical storm conditions can be expected tonight into eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina. Heavy rainfall and wind damage is the main threat tonight. Seas will also continue rough after surge levels drop into Saturday. Check the NHC advisory for the latest on hazards associated with Ian.
Rich Johnson
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