Thursday Evening Update

Ida forms in Caribbean

The Weather Situation
Deep convection is primarily to the east of the circulation center. The overall structure is showing organization.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:20 PM EDT Tropical Storm Ida was centered at 18.0 N / 79.8 W or about 130 miles SE of Grand Cayman. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models have stabilized and now take Ida over western Cuba into the southern Gulf and to southeast Louisiana by early to mid Sunday. All interests on the north central Gulf coast should immediately take action to protect life and property.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Friday Midday Update

Ida almost a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Ida will likely become a hurricane soon before hitting western Cuba later today. Cayman Brac reported a gust to 45 mph recently.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Ida was centered at 20.7 N / 82.1 W or about 200 miles ESE of the western tip of Cuba. It was moving NW at 15 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 996 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ida will move over western Cuba later today, then into the southern Gulf and to southeast Louisiana by mid Sunday. All interests on the north central Gulf coast should immediately take action to protect life and property.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Saturday Midday Update

Ida to significantly strengthen today

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows deep convection building around the eye of Hurricane Ida. The eastern semi-circle is the weaker half of the hurricane at this time. Ida is moving over very warm water and rapid deepening / strengthening is expected today into tonight before landfall.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Hurricane Ida was centered at 24.8 N / 86.1 W or about 350 miles SSE of the mouth of the Mississippi river. It was moving NW at 16 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 984 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ida will make landfall on the southeast / south central coast of Louisiana by Sunday afternoon as a major hurricane. All interests on the north central gulf coast should finish actions to protect life and property today.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Saturday Evening Update

Ida strengthening rapidly

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery now shows that the central dense overcast is becoming more symmetrical and an eye is now clearly seen.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Ida will make landfall on the southeast / south central coast of Louisiana by early Sunday afternoon as a major hurricane. All interests on the north central gulf coast should finish actions to protect life and property today.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Sunday Midday Update

Ida to make landfall soon

The Weather Situation
Hurricane Ida underwent rapid deepening last night. A solid central dense overcast has the appearance now that many major hurricanes take. Pressure was as low as 930 mb.

Current Tropical Weather

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Landfall will occur shortly on the southeast coast of Louisiana. Extreme winds over southeast Louisiana will be encountered as well as high surge, flooding rainfall and isolated tornadoes in outer bands. The track will take Ida into northcentral Louisiana and into Mississippi during the next 12-24 hours.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: New Orleans Radar


Tropicast: New Orleans Radar - Storm Relative Winds

Mid Afternoon Satellite and Radar

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: New Orleans Radar

Sunday Evening Update

Ida over land

The Weather Situation
Hurricane Ida is now inland. IMO, Ida was a 135 mph hurricane at landfall, not at 150 mph. My reasoning is that the strongest flight level winds before landfall were about 155 mph measured at 700 mb. With the correction factor this would be closer to 140 mph. The sfmr estimated slightly higher. Over land, the strongest winds aloft never mix to the surface. So IMO Ida may have been 140 - 145 mph over water and a little weaker than that at landfall.

Current Tropical Weather
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

A Weatherflow station near Dulac just reported sustained winds of 93 mph (150 km/h) and a gust to 135 mph (217 km/h). A
Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station at the South Lafourche airport recently reported a sustained wind of 91 mph (146
km/h) and wind gust of 122 mph (196 km/h). A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported
at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The track will take Ida into northcentral Louisiana and into Mississippi during the next 12-24 hours.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Rain Totals