Sunday Afternoon Update

Recon investigating karen

The Weather Situation
Satellite shows that Karen is poorly defined. It has a broad low level circulation in the SE Caribbean Sea. IMO it is not a storm.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 2:00 PM AST Karen was centered at 12.7 N / 62.3 W or 60 miles north of Grenada. It was moving WNW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Karen is forecast to move north across the eastern Caribbean over the next few days. This is also dependent if the circulation holds together.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Monday Afternoon Update

Recon investigating karen

The Weather Situation
Satellite shows that Karen remains poorly defined. I still do not believe it is at tropical storm strength even though the SFMR data reporting mid 40''s winds.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 2:00 PM AST Karen was centered at 14.9 N / 64.8 W or 190 miles south of St. Croix. It was moving NNW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1007 hPa.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Karen is forecast to move north across the eastern Caribbean over the next few days. This is also dependent if the circulation holds together.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Tuesday Evening Update

Karen nearing Puerto Rico

The Weather Situation
Karen is organizing and approaching the eastern end of Puerto Rico. It is the first time that it actually looks like a tropical storm. The greatest threat will be from flash flooding.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Karen was centered at 18.0 N / 65.8 W or 35 miles southeast of San Juan, P.R. It was moving north at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Karen is forecast to move north away from Puerto Rico and stall well east of the Bahamas.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Radar Tuesday late afternoon

Wednesday Night Update

Karen weaker

The Weather Situation
Karen has weakened again today after showing some organization yesterday.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Karen was centered at 22.9 N / 64.3 W or 330 miles NNE of San Juan, P.R. It was moving NNE at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 hPa.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Karen is forecast to stall well east of the Bahamas for the next several days and may try to move westward after that.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Thursday Night Update

Karen starting to get sheared

The Weather Situation
An impressive burst of deep convection is east of the circulation center. It is expected that wind shear will increase and weaken the circulation during the next 48 hours.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Karen was centered at 27.2 N / 62.9 W or 370 miles SSE of Bermuda. It was moving NNE at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Karen is forecast weaken well east of the Bahamas for the next several days and may try to move westward after that as an extratropical cyclone.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

Friday Midday Update

Karen a depression

The Weather Situation
Karen will dissipate to a remnant low shortly.

For more frequent updates: Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx


Tropicast: Visible Satellite