Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2008 4:42 pm
Tuesday Evening Update
Ike moving into Gulf of Mexico
Ike made it's way into the Gulf off of the west coast of Cuba around 5 pm edt today. Officially it is at 75 mph. A closer estimate is probably 70 mph. The last several recons did not report hurricane force winds at the surface. The last report was 71 mph.
Ike will likely become a major hurricane again. The forecast track has shifted some again, this time northward. A strong trough will abruptly turn Ike northward about the time it makes landfall. This timing is absolutely critical. If the trough is faster, it will pick up Ike and turn it northwest sooner. If the trough is slower, it will allow Ike to move inland farther south, then turn northwest once inland. Interests along all of the Texas coast needs to follow the path of Ike closely. If Ike turns faster, some of western Louisiana could be affected by outer bands. This Ike forecast is again the perfect example of why we don't look at the details of an extened hurricane forecast. Timing of the troughs can be critical for landfall points and models simply can't forecast that well four or five days out.
NHC's forecast track looks reasonable at this time. They are taking the middle road between the model extremes and moving Ike toward the central Texas coast.
Please don't panic. Long range forecasts often change by large margins. Stay updated with the latest forecast.


Ike moving into Gulf of Mexico
Ike made it's way into the Gulf off of the west coast of Cuba around 5 pm edt today. Officially it is at 75 mph. A closer estimate is probably 70 mph. The last several recons did not report hurricane force winds at the surface. The last report was 71 mph.
Ike will likely become a major hurricane again. The forecast track has shifted some again, this time northward. A strong trough will abruptly turn Ike northward about the time it makes landfall. This timing is absolutely critical. If the trough is faster, it will pick up Ike and turn it northwest sooner. If the trough is slower, it will allow Ike to move inland farther south, then turn northwest once inland. Interests along all of the Texas coast needs to follow the path of Ike closely. If Ike turns faster, some of western Louisiana could be affected by outer bands. This Ike forecast is again the perfect example of why we don't look at the details of an extened hurricane forecast. Timing of the troughs can be critical for landfall points and models simply can't forecast that well four or five days out.
NHC's forecast track looks reasonable at this time. They are taking the middle road between the model extremes and moving Ike toward the central Texas coast.


