Melissa

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Oct 21, 2025 4:51 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Melissa is heavily sheared
The low center of Melissa is nearly exposed with only some deep convection. It is battling wind shear. The massive burst of deep convection is currently well east of the center of circulation.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane as it slowly moves northward generally between eastern Jamaica and southern Haiti. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Potential hazards include strong, damaging winds, high surf, very heavy rainfall / flooding.

Interests in Haiti and Jamaica should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Wed Oct 22, 2025 4:36 pm

Wednesday Late Afternoon Update

Little change since yesterday
The low center, after being under deep convection earlier today has once again emerged to the west. Strong west / NW wind shear has misaligned the low and mid level centers not allowing for strengthening at this time.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Late Afternoon

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Early Afternoon

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 2-3 days as wind shear lowers. It is forecast to slowly move northward then turning westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Potential hazards include strong, damaging winds, high surf, very heavy rainfall / flooding.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Thu Oct 23, 2025 4:05 pm

Thursday Late Afternoon Update

More disruption

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Today the low continues to fight wind shear, with the convection being dispersed, but still mainly east of the low center. With the slow motion of this tropical cyclone, very serious flooding is possible causing river flooding, flash flooding and landslides. Other potential hazards include strong damaging winds and high surf.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 1-3 days as wind shear lowers. It is forecast to slowly move northward then turning westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. A turn to the north near Jamaica and eastern Cuba is possible by early next week. This track will be impacted by how much wind shear plays a role in its development. Significant changes are possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Fri Oct 24, 2025 5:40 pm

Friday Late Afternoon Update

Melissa getting organized

Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for southern Haiti and Jamaica.

Deep convection is expanding and banding is taking shape today. Heavy rainfall is spreading over Hispaniola. A rapid deepening (strengthening) phase is becoming more likely. Interests in Jamaica should be preparing for possible impacts from a major hurricane.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models make Melissa a hurricane over the next 24 hours as wind shear continues to lower. It is forecast to slowly turn westward - south of Jamaica into this weekend. A turn to the north near / over Jamaica and eastern Cuba is becoming likely by early next week. Forecast models are becoming more aligned on this forecast.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:00 pm

Saturday Late Afternoon Update

Melissa now a hurricane

Melissa continues to organize today with Hurricane Hunter aircraft report the assemblance of a 20 mi wide eyewall taking shape. The central dense overcast (CDO) indicates very cold cloud tops pointing to organization. The heaviest rainfall is within the CDO and east of the low center in banding. Looking at the latest recon I currently don't see any winds close to 90 mph yet and think that this is a bit high, but strengthening is likely soon.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

Tropicast: Jamaica Radar 19:44Z / 3:44 pm EDT Saturday

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report - Strongest measured wind 64 kts

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are now indicating a rapid strengthening phase to begin shortly into Sunday. Melissa is forecast to slowly turn westward - south of Jamaica into Sunday then turn to the north near / over Jamaica and eastern Cuba by early next week.

Jamaica should finish preparations by Sunday for the possibility of a major hurricane. Damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Sun Oct 26, 2025 11:02 am

Sunday Midday Update

Melissa strengthens rapidly

Since last evening, Melissa has strengthened very rapidly. A very well defined eye is now visible as well as clustered deep convection east of the central dense overcast or core convection of the hurricane. Unfortunately the radar site or website from Jamaica is not available so those images can not be displayed.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report - Strongest measured wind 120 kts

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models continue the slow motion with the northerly turn anticipated by Monday. This wil put the hurricane making landfall over Jamaica by later Monday night / Tuesday morning with effects well preceding this time. A second landfall over far eastern Cuba is expected late Tuesday. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica, with strong, damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Mon Oct 27, 2025 1:12 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Melissa beginning to slowly turn north, remains a cat 5

Melissa became a category 5 hurricane this morning. The hurricane hunters continue to show pressure drops and strengthening. It is possible for a fluctuation in strength during eyewall replacement cycles before landfall on the south coast of Jamaica.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 78.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB...26.76 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Jamaica Radar this morning

Jamaica Radar this afternoon

Tropicast: Hurricane Hunter Recon Report earlier this afternoon

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Landfall on the south Jamaica coast is still expected tonight / Tuesday morning . A second landfall over far eastern Cuba is expected late Tuesday. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica, with strong, damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is possible in eastern Jamaica and SW Haiti. Very heavy rainfall is also likely in SW Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Mon Oct 27, 2025 7:18 pm

Monday Evening Update

Melissa heading to the southern Jamaica coast late tonight / early Tuesday

Melissa has changed little in strength today and remains a hurricane capable of producing catastrophic damage. All residents of Jamaica should be in a safe secure location, sheltered from exposed areas to strong winds, and away from the coastal surge areas. In addition, locations near rivers and even smaller tributaries should be avoided.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Jamaica Radar 7:47 PM AST (EDT)

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Landfall on the south Jamaica coast is still expected late tonight / Tuesday morning . A second landfall over far eastern Cuba is expected late Tuesday evening. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica and SE coast of Cuba, with strong, catastrophic damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is likely in Jamaica and SE Cuba. Heavy rainfall with additional amounts of 6-12" is possible over the SW Dominican Republic and SW Haiti. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Oct 28, 2025 8:04 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Melissa about to make landfall

Melissa is about to make landfall on the SW / southcentral coast of Jamaica. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a pressure to 893.5 mb making it one the of strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on record. A wind to 206 mph was measured at 10,000 ft which adjusts to about 185 mph at the surface.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...290 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...896 MB...26.47 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 78.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Recon report 153 kts 10,000 ft

Recon report 164 kts 10,000 ft

Recon report 179 kts 10,000 ft

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The next landfall will be over far eastern Cuba is expected late this evening. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday as predicted by the current models.

Storm surge, especially on the south coast of Jamaica and SE coast of Cuba, with strong, catastrophic damaging winds and devastating rainfall of 2-3 FEET is likely in Jamaica and SE Cuba. Heavy rainfall with additional amounts of 6-12" is possible over the SW Dominican Republic and SW Haiti. Flash flooding, river flooding and landslides are all possible.

Interests in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Oct 28, 2025 12:04 pm

From NHC:

Melissa has made landfall in southwestern Jamaica near New Hope with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb (26.34 inches).

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:19 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Melissa to make a second landfall on the SE coast of Cuba tonight

Melissa's eye has moved off of the north coast of Jamaica. Still the southern eyewall is battering much of the western and central part of the country. Winds have shifted from the west or SW as the eye has moved north. Winds will now steadily increase on the SE coast of Cuba with strong damaging winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite - landfall Jamaica 1pm edt

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite early evening

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Landfall on the SE Cuba coast will occur in the early morning hours of Wednesday with effects increasing now. Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday / Wednesday night.

Interests in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Wed Oct 29, 2025 8:41 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Melissa moving off the SE Cuba coast

Melissa's was over SE Cuba all of Tuesday night. Affects will continue today and also increasing in the SE Bahamas and lesser effects east toward the Turks and Caicos. Pressure has risen dramatically after the hurricane encountered land over Jamaica and Cuba. The effects in the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos will be far less, but still should not be taken lightly.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Melissa will pass through the SE Bahamas and near / just west of the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday / Wednesday night and near Bermuda on Thursday / Thursday evening.

Interests in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos should stay updated with the latest information on Melissa as well as Bermuda.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Wed Oct 29, 2025 7:13 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Melissa moving through the SE Bahamas

Melissa is now moving through the SE and southern central Bahamas. The Turks and Caicos are seeing the worst of the effects pass to the east. From NHC: A private weather station at Pitts Town on Crooked Island recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Late Afternoon

RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 IR Satellite Evening

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Melissa is moving through the SE / south central Bahamas tonight. It will accelerate NE to near or just west of Bermuda on Thursday evening / night.

Post by **Tropical Inspector** » Thu Oct 30, 2025 4:51 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Melissa SW of Bermuda

Melissa will be moving to the west of Bermuda tonight. Bermuda's radar is unfortunately not working, but satellite imagery shows very heavy showers approaching the islands of Bermuda. A hurricane warning is in effect with the possibility of some wind gusts to hurricane strength (min cat 1 strength = 74 mph). The eye has been clouded over as the hurricane makes its transition to an extratropical cyclone by tomorrow.

The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 69.7W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

Tropicast: RAMMB/CIRA slider GOES 19 Visible Satellite Late Afternoon

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Melissa will past to the west of Bermuda tonight. Heavy showers are the main concern with some gusts possibly to hurricane strength.

Official NHC Advisory
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 038.shtml?

Official NHC Forecast Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

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