Leslie

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Afternoon Update
Leslie slowly organizing

Satellite imagery shows that Leslie is in the deep tropics and is gradually becoming better organized as it slowly lifts to the NW.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 31.5W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Friday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie will follow in a similar track a few days behind Kirk. This track will also take it generally NW then more northward into the central open North Atlantic waters.

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Afternoon Update
Leslie still below hurricane strength

Leslie is not a hurricane yet. It continues to organize and will likely be classified tomorrow. IMO, the tropical storm isn't quite at 70 mph yet and may be closer to 60 mph. Leslie now is developing banding, more more organized than the elongated structure since yesterday. It will follow near areas where the ocean water has been upwelled, so it will not achieve Kirk's strength.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 33.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Friday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie will follow in a similar track a few days behind Kirk. This track will also take it generally NW then more northward into the central open North Atlantic waters.

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update
Leslie is not a hurricane yet - unofficially

The Hurricane Center is saying that from Dvorak estimates that Leslie has strengthened some. IMO they are overestimating. There is still no visible eye and IR imagery is not very impressive with cloud tops that aren't very high. I still believe that Leslie is still below hurricane strength, probably closer to 65-70 mph. Convection near the center does look more organized than last night and Leslie should finally become a hurricane today.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 34.8W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Saturday Morning

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update
Leslie has strengthened unofficially

Leslie has a well defined eye on the IR imagery and a solid eyewall to the south. Cloud tops are moderately cold under-supporting the 85 mph estimated speed. IMO, it's possible that Leslie is actually stronger now than the official estimate. My estimate is 100 mph, possibly stronger. It is interesting to note NHC's wind speed estimate was the same 24 hours ago, but the satellite imagery is substantially different. Yesterday it seems as though the estimate was too high, today too low.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 37.3W
ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Sunday Morning


Tropicast: IR Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Sunday Morning


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie will move NW into the central open North Atlantic waters facing growing shear and dry air. It now appears that gradual weakening can be expected after this strengthening phase.

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Midday Update
Leslie slowly weakening

Leslie is now showing signs of increasing shear. There is still a fair amount of deep convection, but this weakening will increase as shear continues.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 41.2W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Monday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie is moving NW into the central open North Atlantic waters facing growing shear and dry air and now weakening.

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Midday Update
Leslie still holding on

Leslie is still looking organized and it appears that the shear slowed some over the last 24 hours. It is expected to pick up again soon. Banding and the deep convection near the center of circulation is still solid.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 45.6W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Tuesday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie is moving north into the central open North Atlantic waters facing growing shear and dry air and now weakening.

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Midday Update
Leslie still holding on - part 2

Leslie continues to fight dry air and shear and is again a minimal hurricane.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 48.4W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Wednesday Afternoon


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie is moving NNE into the central open North Atlantic waters and will turn northeast in another day. It will gradually weaken over the next few days..

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update
Shear returning

Leslie is still somewhat impressive on satellite imagery, but is starting to show signs of NW shear. Imo, Leslie is no longer at the official strength estimated by NHC and is starting to weaken again.


The Weather Situation
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 49.8W
ABOUT 1705 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Thursday Morning


Tropical Weather Forecast:
Leslie is moving north into the central open North Atlantic waters and will turn northeast in another day. It will gradually weaken over the next few days as it becomes extratropical.

[Tropical Inspector]

Tropicast: Visible Satellite RAMMB / CIRA Slider Friday Late Morning