Alex

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Thursday Evening Update

PTC 1 to become season's first tropical cyclone

The Weather Situation
An area of disorganized convection will likely become more concentrated in the SE Gulf of Mexico Friday and become the season's first tropical cyclone.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 87.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 1 will become the season's first tropical cyclone as it approaches SW Florida Friday night and crosses the peninsula Saturday. The main threat will be heavy rainfall of several inches which may produce flash flooding. Sea level rise of 1-3 feet is possible on the coast of SW Florida.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image
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Re: PTC 1 (Alex)

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Friday Evening Update

PTC 1 is not better organized

The Weather Situation
Earlier today a recon found westerly surface winds to close off a circulation. Deep convection was sparse near the center of circulation so it was not classified. Southwesterly winds aloft have created conditions that have not favored development Friday.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 85.0W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 1 will cross south Florida later tonight through Saturday. Development east of Florida is possible before losing tropical characteristics farther out to sea. The main threat remains heavy rainfall of several inches across south Florida.

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image
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Re: PTC 1 (Alex)

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Midday Update

PTC 1 is over SW Florida
PTC 1 had a chance to organize Friday as a weak low level circulation was found by the Hurricane Hunters near the Yucatan peninsula. By the time the weak low formed wind shear increased and the convection was eradicated near the center of circulation. That essentially ended development chances before reaching the SW Florida coast.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 81.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

Tropicast: IR Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 1 is crossing southern Florida today. There will be a chance for it still to organize east of Florida and be in the vicinity of Bermuda by Monday.
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Re: PTC 1 (Alex)

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Saturday Evening Update

PTC 1 is east of Florida
PTC 1 is moving east of Florida this evening. A wind gust to 49 mph was measured on Grand Bahama at Settlement Point. Heavy rainfall will continue in the NW Bahamas as the system moves east.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
PTC 1 has a better chance to organize now that it has moved east of Florida. Heavy rainfall is the main concern to the northwestern Bahamas and SE Florida.
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Re: Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Sunday Morning Update

PTC 1 finally classified
PTC 1was classified as tropical storm Alex at 2 am edt. Visible satellite imagery shows that the low center is exposed west of the deep convection and is not very well defined. It is possible that it will try to reform under the widespread deep convection to the east before becoming extratropical tomorrow.

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 76.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alex will move toward the vicinity of Bermuda tomorrow before becoming extratropical. Tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy showers are possible with the passage.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Alex

Post by Caribbean Traveler »

Monday Midday Update

PTC 1 finally classified
Alex has essentially become extratropical with the low center void of convection. Winds have gusted to tropical storm forces over Bermuda this morning

The Weather Situation

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
Image

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alex will move toward the vicinity of Bermuda tomorrow before becoming extratropical. Tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy showers are possible with the passage.
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert
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