Elsa

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Morning Update

Elsa classified

The Weather Situation
Banding has increased this morning on what is now tropical storm Elsa. Some strengthening is likely as it approaches the Windwards.

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 9.6 N / 50.2 W or about 780 miles ESE of the Windward islands. It was moving west at 25 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa is predicted to move toward the Caribbean Islands as a tropical storm. The GFS model turns it up the western Florida coast by five days. This path is very uncertain as ensembles deviate far from this track keeping it in the Caribbean.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Little change today

The Weather Situation
Elsa is moving rapidly WNW. Any intensity increase will be slow as shear will hinder development.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 11.2 N / 53.8 W or about 410 miles ESE of Barbados. It was moving WNW at 29 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa is predicted to move toward the Caribbean Islands as a tropical storm. After that a host of forecast models have highly divergent tracks.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
url]

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Elsa moving through the Windwards today

The Weather Situation
Elsa has strengthened to minimal hurricane strength today as reported by observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Satellite still shows some disorganized features likely do to the high speed on movement causing shear. The deepest convection is now well west of the Windwards and conditions will steadily improve this evening.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Hurricane Elsa was centered at 14.2 N / 63.7 W or about 505 miles SE of Santo Domingo, D.R. It was moving west at 30 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa is predicted to move between Jamaica and Haiti toward eastern Cuba through the weekend as a minimal hurricane. After that a host of forecast models continue to have divergent tracks.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite earlier today

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Evening Update

Elsa moving past SW Haiti

The Weather Situation
Elsa continues to fight wind shear. The circulation center was briefly visible before a new burst of convection formed near the center of circulation. Most of the deep convection trails the low, well to the east. Winds were based mostly on SFMR data. IMO, the maximum sustained surface winds are closer to 60-65 mph.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 17.5 N / 73.9 W or about 195 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica It was moving WNW at 28 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa is fighting shear and will likely continue as a tropical storm as it moves toward southern Cuba tonight. It is then forecast to make a turn toward the west coast of Florida early in the week, likely as a minimal tropical storm. The main threat to Florida appears to be heavy rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Morning Update

Elsa NE of Jamaica

The Weather Situation
Very heavy rainfall is currently falling over Jamaica and advancing toward eastern Cuba. A recon is currently in the storm and supports a maximum sustained surface wind of about 50-55 mph.

Current tropical weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 18.7 N / 76.8 W or about 50 miles north of Kingston, Jamaica It was moving WNW at 13 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1009 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will move toward Cuba during the next 24 hours. It is then forecast to make a turn toward the west coast of Florida early in the week, likely as a minimal tropical storm. The main threat to Florida appears to be heavy rainfall.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Sunday Evening Update

Elsa approaching southern Cuba

The Weather Situation
I still think NHC is high on their wind estimate. Flight level winds are much lower than the SFMR reading that the maximum winds were estimated from. Sustained 60 mph seems quite high for a pressure of 1009 hPa (mb).

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 19.8 N / 77.9 W or about 100 miles south of Camaguey, Cuba. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1009 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will move across Cuba during the next 24 hours. It is then forecast to make a turn toward the west coast of Florida during Tuesday, likely as a minimal tropical storm. The main threat to Florida appears to be heavy rainfall. A small surge is also possible on the west coast generally in the 2-4 ft range.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Morning Update

Elsa crossing Cuba soon

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery this morning show deep convention near and away from the circulation center in a generally disorganized fashion. There are really no good observations - land or buoy to verify what is going on with the winds at the surface. The recon is reporting maximum flight level winds of about 47 kts which is in close agreement with the SFMR in one area of measurement. In another area the SFMR is reporting 55 kts. This is what NHC is basing their max winds from. The problem is that the flight level winds are in the 21 knot range. The system has been tilted, so this many account for some of the disparity, but I don't believe it should be that much. IMO, 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph would be a better estimate.

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 21.4 N / 80.7 W or about 55 miles ESE of Cayo Largo, Cuba. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will move across central Cuba today and up the west coast of Florida Tuesday. The main threat to Florida appears to be heavy rainfall. A small surge is also possible on the west coast generally in the 2-4 ft range. In addition, winds to tropical storm force can be expected on the west coast of Florida Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Monday Evening Update

Elsa over Cuba

The Weather Situation
Elsa is currently over Cuba. There are no recent recon reports and the few reliable surface observations near the circulation center do not show much more than 15-25 mph winds. Satellite shows that areas of heavy rainfall continue in a scattered fashion. Weather radar from Key West is too far away to give any meaningful information about the wind strength at the surface.

Officailly NHC went with 50 mph, which means gusts should be 60-65 mph. IMO, this is a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and that may be generous to say that there are sustained 40 mph winds. If this is the case, it must be over water, south of Cuba.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 22.7 N / 81.9 W or about 130 miles south of Key West, Florida. It was moving NW at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will move just offshore of the west coast of Florida Tuesday. The main threat to Florida appears to be heavy rainfall. A small surge is also possible on the west coast generally in the 1-4 ft range. In addition, winds to tropical storm force can be expected mainly on the west coast of Florida Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Evening Update

Elsa moving up the west coast of Florida

The Weather Situation
Elsa is strengthening today and an eye is trying to form despite the system being heavily sheared. The strongest sector of the tropical storm is over the eastern quadrant. This is actually advantageous as the strongest winds will be blowing offshore.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 25.8 N / 83.0 W or about 150 miles SSW of Tampa, Florida. It was moving north at 10 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 998 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will continue up the west coast of Florida and make landfall over the Big Bend early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall, some wind gusts to minimal hurricane force and storm surge can be expected.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite


Tropicast: Tampa Radar 5:50 PM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Tuesday Night Update

Elsa a minimal hurricane

The Weather Situation
The hurricane hunters have found some minimal hurricane force winds in Elsa recently. In addition, buoy data offshore of the SW coast of Florida from earlier today measured a wind gust to near hurricane force. The strongest winds remain offshore. On the west central coast of Florida the strongest winds are around 30 mph just south of Tampa Bay.

Current tropical weather
As of 8:00 PM EDT Hurricane Elsa was centered at 26.6 N / 83.1 W or about 100 miles SSW of Tampa, Florida. It was moving north at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 996 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will continue up the west coast of Florida and make landfall over the Big Bend early Wednesday. Heavy rainfall, some wind gusts to minimal hurricane force and storm surge can be expected.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Tampa Radar 9:25 PM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Wednesday Morning Update

Elsa weakening rapidly

The Weather Situation
Elsa looks very disorganized on satellite imagery. IMO, it never did regain hurricane strength last evening. Buoy data from late yesterday and last night showed maximum winds on the coast north of Tampa at around 40 mph. Offshore reports showed a buoy with a gust to 56 knots or almost 65 mph. Yesterday evening hurricane hunter aircraft reported SFMR and 850 MB winds to about 70 knots or a little stronger. It is hard to know the exact strongest winds with data being sparse over the water. It does seem once again that the measured winds did not mix all the way to surface and that the SFMR is overestimating some.

Heavy rainfall fell from near Port Charlotte to south of Tampa where amounts of 3-8" fell.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 AM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 28.5 N / 83.5 W or about 50 miles SSW of Cedar Key, Florida. It was moving north at 14 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will make landfall over the Big Bend of Florida this morning. It will then move into south Georgia and eastern Carolinas as a tropical depression or possibly minimal tropical storm. Heavy rainfall in the main concern.

Tropicast: IR Satellite


Tropicast: Tampa Radar 9:25 PM EDT

[Tropical Inspector]

Thursday Evening Update

Elsa brings rain and some severe

The Weather Situation
Elsa is incorporating some mid-latitude wind and has strengthened slightly. Winds at Wrightville Beach were sustained at 47 mph with a gust to 54 mph. A tornado threat continues into this evening with rainfall of 2-5" possible.

Current tropical weather
As of 5:00 PM EDT Tropical Storm Elsa was centered at 36.3 N / 78.3 W or about 125 WSW or Norfolk, VA. It was moving NE at 21 mph. Officially top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 hPa (mb).

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Elsa will move across the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening and offshore of Cape Cod tomorrow afternoon. It will become extratropical as it continues near Nova Scotia, Canada.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite Late Thursday Morning


Tropicast: Raleigh, NC Radar 11 AM EDT


Tropicast: Wakefield, VA Radar 7 PM EDT