Polo

Tropical cyclone archives of the 2014 eastern and central Pacific hurricane season

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Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:54 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Polo forms south of Mexico

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Polo has formed well south of the southern Mexico coast. Heavy showers and storms associated with Polo are offshore at this time.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 11.9 N / 98.4 W or about 360 miles SSE Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is forecast to move around a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move near the coast of west central Mexico, then west of the southern Baja later this weekend. Interests in that area and Los Cabos should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:44 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Polo organizing

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Polo is looking more organized south of Mexico. Banding features are now to the north of the low and a solid central core is expanding. The rain bands are currently offshore. Polo is likely to continue strengthening into a hurricane.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 13.2 N / 100.4 W or about 260 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is forecast to move around a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move near the coast of west central Mexico, then west of the southern Baja later this weekend. Interests in that area and Los Cabos should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:18 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Polo's rain squall just offshore

The Weather Situation
Tropical Storm Polo appears to be strengthening. In fact, I am thinking the wind is already a little stronger than the previous hurricane center advisory. The core of the tropical storm is offshore southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Increasing rain squalls and high surf can be expected on the west central coast from Acapulco to north of Zihuatanejo.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 14.8 N / 101.8 W or about 200 miles south of Zihuantanejo, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph ( NHC - 50 mph). Pressure was estimated at 1000 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is forecast to move near the coast of west central Mexico, then west of the southern Baja later this weekend. Interests in that area and Los Cabos should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 17, 2014 4:05 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Polo almost a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Polo's rain bands are slowly pulling away from the west central coast of Mexico. The main concern will be from rough surf as well as some scattered heavy showers near the coast. The weather will improve overnight in this area as Polo becomes a hurricane and moves farther out to sea. North of Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrienties still may see rain squalls tonight into tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 16.4 N / 103.7 W or about 165 miles WSW of Zihuantanejo, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is forecast to stay offshore the coast of west central Mexico. By this weekend it should veer to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Interests in the Los Cabos area should follow the progress of Polo closely.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 052.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 18, 2014 7:01 am

Thursday Morning Update

Polo a minimal hurricane

The Weather Situation
Polo strengthened a touch last night and is now a hurricane. Rain bands have shifted north and will affect the Mexico coast from Cabo Corrientes south to Manzanillo today. Tropical storm force winds can be expected in the warned area from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. Rainfall amounts may exceed 10 inches with flash flooding and mudslides.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Hurricane Polo was centered at 16.9 N / 105.3 W or about 165 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico / 510 miles SE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving WNW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 988 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is offshore of the coast of west central Mexico. By this weekend it should veer to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Interests in the Los Cabos area should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 18, 2014 5:42 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Polo weakens

The Weather Situation
The dry air that was mentioned on the Twitter update is eating away at the thunderstorms north of the circulation center. Because of this the eye wall was weakened and Polo was downgraded to tropical storm strength. Tropical storm force winds still may be seen in squalls south of Cabo Corrientes. Rainfall amounts may exceed 10 inches with flash flooding and mudslides.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical Storm Polo was centered at 17.8 N / 105.9 W or about 180 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico / 435 miles SE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 981 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is offshore of the coast of west central Mexico. By this weekend it should veer to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Interests in the Los Cabos area should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 19, 2014 6:57 am

Friday Morning Update

Polo just offshore of Cabo Corrientes

The Weather Situation
Polo is fighting easterly wind shear. Despite this, it is remaining nearly intact with strong thunderstorms near the center of the circulation. The easterly winds are keeping heavy showers out to sea. A few thundershowers assocated with Polo are just south of Cabo San Lucas to the north of the circulation. Expect heavy surf on the southern Baja and west central coast of Mexico. Conditions are much improved today over west central Mexico.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 19.3 N / 107.6 W or about 155 miles WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico / 290 miles SSE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 70 mph. Pressure was estimated at 982 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is offshore of the coast of Cabo Corrientes Mexico. By this weekend it should veer to the west of Cabo San Lucas. Interests in the Los Cabos area should follow the progress of Polo closely.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 850.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep2.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 19, 2014 7:00 pm

Friday Evening Update

Polo turning NW

The Weather Situation
Polo continues to fight strong upper air winds. These easterly winds are allowing for a nice afternoon over west central Mexico. Polo is also starting to turn more west so that it should veer south of Los Cabos.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 19.8 N / 107.9 W or about 150 miles WSW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico / 250 miles SSE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is beginning to turn more northwest and should move southwest of Cabo San Lucas this weekend. Interests in the Los Cabos area should follow the progress of Polo closely.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 20, 2014 7:08 am

Saturday Morning Update

Polo weakening

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery confirms that Polo is being destroyed by strong upper air winds. Winds of 50 mph are probably confined to a thunderstorm area on the southwest side of the circulation. The threat to Los Cabos is now much reduced and only minimal effects with surf and a few showers are likely.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 20.7 N / 108.8 W or about 165 miles SSE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving NW at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is turning south of Los Cabos It will move to the southwest of the area this weekend.

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Re: Polo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 20, 2014 4:57 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Polo sheared

The Weather Situation
High level easterly winds continue to shear Polo. Only an isolated shower is over the southern Baja. A small area of thunderstorms remain over the southwestern quadrant of Polo. It will continue to weaken and likely be declassified later Sunday as it moves over colder water. Polo is not a threat to Los Cabos and this will be the last tropical update on this storm.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Polo was centered at 21.2 N / 109.4 W or about 120 miles SSE of the tip of Baja California. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Polo is turning south of Los Cabos It will move to the southwest of the area this weekend.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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Rich Johnson
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