Odile

Tropical cyclone archives of the 2014 eastern and central Pacific hurricane season

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Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 10, 2014 7:12 am

Wednesday Morning Update

15 E classified as a tropical depression

Synopsis
Unsettled weather south of Mexico has organized sufficiently so that it was classified by the hurricane center a short while ago. It is likely to become tropical storm Odile later today or tonight. Unsettled weather will increase as this system strengthens.

Current
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT 15 E was centered at 14.4 N / 102.5 W or about 245 miles SW of Acapulco. It was moving NNW at about 1 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1006 mb.

Forecast:
Forecast models take tropical depression 15 E close to the west central coast of Mexico by Friday. It moves back to the northwest and may move just west of the southern Baja late this weekend into early next week. Interests in these areas should follow 15 E (Odile) very closely!

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 10, 2014 4:43 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

Odile classified

Synopsis
Odile has strengthened a touch and is now a tropical storm. Most of the effects are offshore. Heavy showers and storms are not affecting the coast now, but likely will as it comes closer to the coast later Thursday and Friday. Surf will build and strong rip currents will also be a concern to west central Mexico.

Current
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Odile was centered at 15.3 N / 103.2 W or about 200 miles SSW of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 mb.

Forecast:
Forecast models take tropical storm Odile offshore of the west central coast of Mexico by Saturday. It moves back to the northwest and may move just west of the southern Baja late late Sunday into early next week. Interests in these areas should follow Odile very closely!

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 11, 2014 8:04 am

Thursday Morning Update

Odile a little stronger

Synopsis
Odile is gaining more convection as the storm increases in size. It also has drifted a little farther west than models predicted, taking it a touch farther from the coast, which has important consequences for the coast. The core of the heaviest rain and strongest winds are offshore with some of the disorganized rain bands affecting the coast. Swell on the coast will increase as the intensity of Odile also increases.

Current
As of 2 AM PDT / 5AM EDT Tropical storm Odile was centered at 15.5 N / 104.1 W or about 215 miles SW of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico. It was moving west at about 1 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 mb.

Forecast:
Good news. Forecast models have trended farther offshore. This means that the west central coast will only get brushed by outer rain bands. The same for Los Cabos as Odile may move a little farther west. :arrow: That is still too early to call and interests in the southern Baja should monitor the track of Odile closely.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 12, 2014 6:55 am

Friday Morning Update

Odile continues to strengthen

The Weather Situation
Tropical storm Odile is a very slow mover. It is not in a much different location than yesterday. It is expected to soon pick up speed and likely strengthen into a hurricane by tonight. The strongest winds and heavy rain are just offshore, but some outer rain bands will likely develop along the coast producing periods of squally weather.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5AM EDT Tropical storm Odile was centered at 15.5 N / 104.9 W or about 245 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving west at about 2 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile should track NW offshore of the west central coast of Mexico. Weather forecast models continue to show it moving west of the southern Baja by the late weekend or early next week. It will eventually move over colder water farther to the northwest where it will weaken. :arrow: Interests in the southern Baja should monitor the track of Odile closely.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 12, 2014 2:39 pm

Friday Afternoon Update

Odile fighting shear

The Weather Situation
It has been a fairly nice day on the west central coast of Mexico despite a tropical storm offshore. Visible satellite imagery show the low center being exposed today indicating that wind shear has picked up. IR satellite imagery show cloud top warming confirming some weakening. I believe that Odile is a touch weaker than the 60 mph indicated from the midday advisory.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 12 PM PDT / 3 PM EDT Tropical storm Odile was centered at 15.4 N / 105.0 W or about 260 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving west at about 2 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 55 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile should track NW offshore of the west central coast of Mexico. Weather forecast models to show it moving west of the southern Baja by the late weekend or early next week. It will eventually move over colder water farther to the northwest where it will weaken. :arrow: Interests in the southern Baja should monitor the track of Odile closely.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 733.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 13, 2014 7:37 am

Saturday Morning Update

Odile rain bands over the coast

The Weather Situation
Odile strengthened into a hurricane overnight. It also is starting to pick up forward speed slowly and will accelerate by later today. It is now large enough and close enough for rain bands to affect the coast. Rain squalls are between Zihuatanejo north to Manzanillo. Tropical storm force wind gusts are possible in rain squalls. Surf will increase from west central Mexico to the southern Baja.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 16.6 N / 105.8 W or about 195 miles SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico / 260 miles south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. It was moving northwest at about 5 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 993 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile is west of west central Mexico today. It is prediced to move to a position west of the southern Baja by tomorrow night. It will move then over colder water farther to the northwest where it will weaken. :arrow: Interests in the southern Baja should monitor the track of Odile closely.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 13, 2014 3:35 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Rain squalls over the west central coast of Mexico

The Weather Situation
Odile has continued to strengthen today. Rain bands have now expanded north to Cabo Corrientes. The southern limit of the rain bands are south of Zihuantanejo.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 17.0 N / 106.2 W or about 185 SW of Manzanillo / 475 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California. It was moving northwest at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 971 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile is west of west central Mexico this evening. It will to move to a position west of the southern Baja by tomorrow night. It will move then over colder water farther to the northwest where it will weaken. :arrow: Interests in the southern Baja should monitor the track of Odile closely.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 14, 2014 7:53 am

Sunday Morning Update

Odile a dangerous hurricane

The Weather Situation
Odile underwent rapid deepening last night. This means that the strength took a big leap. The track is slightly farther to the east which now means Los Cabos, Mexico will likely see hurricane force winds. High winds, heavy rainfall and rough surf can be expected. Now is the time to quickly complete hurricane preparations before Odile approaches the area later this evening.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 19.3 N / 107.7 W or about 285 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja, California. It was moving NNW at about 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 135 mph. Pressure was estimated at 941 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile track has shifted slightly east which is bad news for Los Cabos. This now means that hurricane forecast winds will affect the southern Baja starting later this evening. It will continue to move NNW paralleling the southern Baja as it slowly weakens.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 14, 2014 2:29 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Odile heading toward Los Cabos!

The Weather Situation
A hurricane hunter has recently investigated Odile. The pressure is much lower than estimated! This indicates a stronger hurricane. It also has appeared to wobble farther to the east which may mean a direct hit near Los Cabos or pass just to the west. Either case, a very dangerous situation! Preparations must be finished in the next few hours!

Current Tropical Weather
As of 12 PM PDT / 3 PM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 20.8 N / 108.5 W or about 170 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja, California. It was moving NW at about 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 140 mph (135 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 941 mb.... A recent recon found pressure down to 924 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile will affect the southern Baja starting later this evening. It appears that the track has wobbled farther east... that will take it into Low Cabos or barely west. I very dangerous situation! It will then continue to move NNW paralleling the southern Baja as it slowly weakens.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Pacific Rainbow Satellite
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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 15, 2014 6:58 am

Monday Morning Update

Odile over the southern Baja

The Weather Situation
Odile made landfall at Cabo San Lucas at approximately 9:45 pm PDT last night. It has tied hurricane Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane on record to hit the southern Baja. Odile is now north of Cabo and west of La Paz. High winds and heavy rain is over the region. A large amount of damage / power outages are likely occurring in the area. A recent wind gust to 89 mph was reported at La Paz. Rainfall amounts of 6-12 inches are possible with flooding and mudslides.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 24.2 N / 110.8 W or about 40 miles west of La Paz, Mexico. It was moving NNW at about 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 945 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile was poorly forecasted by the weather models. It is now predicted to move directly up the Baja peninsula and finally move over the northern Gulf of California as it slowly weakens during the next few days.

Tropicast: 5:30 PM PDT Sunday Pacific Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: 5:30 PM PDT Sunday Pacific Rainbow Satellite
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Tropicast: 7:30 PM PDT Sunday Pacific Rainbow Satellite
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Tropicast: 3:30 AM PDT Pacific Rainbow Satellite
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 150.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 15, 2014 4:17 pm

Monday Evening Update

Odile weakening over the southern Baja

The Weather Situation
Odile continues slowly north over the Baja. Winds have died down, but are still at minimal hurricane force. Winds gusting over 50 mph are capable to cause power outages and damage. Rainfall amounts of 6-12+ inches are possible with flooding and mudslides.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Hurricane Odile was centered at 25.5 N / 111.8 W or about 70 miles southwest of Loreto, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 975 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile will move up the Baja peninsula and finally move over the northern Gulf of California as it slowly weakens during the next few days.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:18 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Odile still producing heavy rainfall

The Weather Situation
Odile continues to bring heavy rainfall to the Baja. Flooding and mudslides are still a concern as well as power outages near the center of circulation over the east central Baja. It appears that the center of the low may be a touch farther east than the official hurricane center update. If this is the case, Odile can keep its strength longer over the Gulf of California.... a rare occurrence. Resorts in Los Cabos sustained considerable damage. It will take some time before the area is "back to normal".

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Tropical Storm Odile was centered at 28.1 N / 113.0 W or about 70 miles northwest of Santa Rosalia, Mexico. It was moving NNW at about 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile is over the central Baja close to the east central coast. It will move over the Gulf of California and bring additional heavy rainfall to northwest Mexico and the southwestern U.S.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:05 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Odile over the Gulf of California

The Weather Situation
Odlie continues to bring heavy rainfall to east central Baja, northwest Mexico and now into southern Arizona. Some locations are getting more rainfall in one day than in an average year. Rainfall totals are still expected to be 5-10+ inches where the core of the circulation passes. The southern Baja is now returning to improved weather conditions.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical Storm Odile was centered at 29.1 N / 113.5 W or about 150 miles south of Puerto Penasco, Mexico. It was moving north at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile is over the northern Gulf of California. It will make another landfall on the northeast coast then weaken. It will bring additional heavy rainfall to northwest Mexico and the southwestern U.S.

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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 17, 2014 5:56 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Odile bringing heavy rainfall to the SW U.S.

The Weather Situation
Odlie continues to bring heavy rainfall to extreme northwest Mexico and into Arizona and New Mexico. The Baja will have much nicer conditions today with only scattered thundershowers.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Odile was centered at 30.1 N / 113.5 W or about 85 miles south of Puerto Penasco, Mexico. It was moving NNE at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Odile is over the northern Gulf of California. It will move inland shortly. It will bring additional heavy rainfall to northwest Mexico and the southwestern U.S. It is very unusual to see a large area of rainfall over the SW U.S. this time of year.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite
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Keep in mind that all rain is not "seen" by the following radars because of the mountainous terrain.

Tropicast: Southern Arizona Radar - 4 AM PDT
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Tropicast: SW New Mexico Radar - 4 AM PDT
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 848.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep5.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Odile

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 17, 2014 2:41 pm

Odile is now inland in extreme northwestern Mexico and no longer being tracked.
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