Arthur

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Morning Update

Arthur east of Virginia Beach

Arthur is now accelerating NNE up the eastern seaboard. Some rain bands will effect the U.S. east coast into early Saturday morning. The center of circulation will be close to Cape Cod tonight, but Arthur will be transforming into an extratropical cyclone. In fact satellite imagery shows the very beginning stages of that now as the eye is not as well represented on radar.

I have a slightly lower estimate of sustained wind as IMO that winds aren't quite as strong. In fact, I don't believe that this was ever a 100 mph - category 2 hurricane. If this were true winds should have been reported in the range of 115-120 mph. The strongest land station wind reported was 87 mph at Ft. Macon, NC. It's possible that stronger winds were seen over Cape Hatteras as the wind instrument stopped reporting after 71 mph.

Rainfall estimates were in the range of 2-4 inches in many areas of eastern North Carolina.

As of 8 am edt Arthur was centered at 36.7 N / 74.4 W or 110 miles ENE of Norfolk, VA. It was moving NE at about 21 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 90 mph (100 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 976 MB.

Forecast:
Forecasts take Arthur just east of Cape Cod by midnight tonight then to southern Nova Scotia, Canada by Saturday morning.

Tropicast: Atlantic IR floater satellite


Tropicast: Mid-Atlantic Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Afternoon Update

Arthur south of Long Island

Arthur is bringing heavy rainfall to eastern Long Island and southern New England on this 4th of July. Rainfall totals have already been near 2" at Montauk, NY and over 2" at Block Island, R.I. doppler radar estimates of 1-2 inches are seen from eastern Long Island to eastern Connecticut into southeastern Massachusetts.

Winds from Arthur will be weakening, but expanding from the center as it becomes extratropical. The strongest winds will be seen near Cape Cod where tropical storm force winds will be likely at the storm passes to the east last this evening. Again, based on the recon, sustained surface winds IMO are lower then the official NHC winds.

As of 2 pm edt Arthur was centered at 38.5 N / 72.4 W or 255 miles SW of Chatham, MA. It was moving NE at about 25 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 80 mph (90 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 979 MB.

Forecast:
Forecasts take Arthur just east of Cape Cod by midnight tonight then to southern Nova Scotia, Canada by Saturday morning. It will then move over Newfoundland Sunday and toward southern Greenland into early next week.

Tropicast: Atlantic visible floater satellite


Tropicast: New York Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Friday Evening Update

Arthur well southeast of Cape Cod

Arthur is staying well east of New England as it moves toward Nova Scotia. A large area of rainfall is falling over southern New England. The heaviest rainfall is from Natucket to Cape Cod. Arthur is transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as the system moves over colder water.


As of 8 pm edt Arthur was centered at 38.5 N / 72.4 W or 95 miles SSE of Chatham, MA. It was moving NE at about 28 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 75 mph (80 mph NHC). Pressure was estimated at 976 MB.

Forecast:
Forecasts take Arthur just east of Cape Cod by midnight tonight then to southern Nova Scotia, Canada by Saturday morning. It will then move over Newfoundland Sunday and toward southern Greenland into early next week.

Tropicast: Atlantic visible floater satellite


Tropicast: Southern New England Radar

[Tropical Inspector]

Saturday Morning Update

Arthur is extratropical and heading up the Bay of Fundy between Maine and Nova Scotia, Canada. A coastal Maine location report 4.5" of rainfall but no flooding.

Tropicast: Atlantic visible floater satellite


Tropicast: Maine Radar