Colin

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season
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Colin

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:37 am

Sunday Morning Update

Tropical disturbance more organized

A tropical disturbance in the open Atlantic is looking more impressive. It is over 1500 miles east south east of the Windwards. Deep convection has expanded markedly. If you read our Atlantic summary you may be baffled by our "moderate" listing for development chances. It appears that this low is embedded in the ITCZ. Lows almost never develop in the ITCZ in the Atlantic. The rest of the world yes, but not the Atlantic. NHC labels nearly everything as a "tropical wave", but this low again appears to be more associated with the monsoon trough. The convection is still impressive, so if it continues to organize we'll also go with high chance of development later today.

:idea: Forecast models take this disturbance near or northeast of the Leewards in a little less than four days.

:!: Interests in the eastern and northern Caribbean should follow this disturbance.

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Re: Low 91L more organized in open Atlantic

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:54 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Tropical disturbance still near tropical depression status

The tropical disturbance has gained a little organization today. It is still far from land situated about 1700 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands. Upper air conditions are favorable for additional strengthening.

The Quickscat satellite would have been a great asset to evaluate this tropical disturbance. Those who said that it would not impact tropical weather forecasting could not have used Quickscat as an operational tool.


:idea: Forecast models take this disturbance northeast of the Leewards in a little less than four days and near the Southeast in about 9-10 days. Keep in mind that forecast track error increases with time....in other words the farther out the forecast, generally the less reliable it will be.

:!: Interests in the eastern Caribbean, Bahamas, and southeastern U.S. should follow this disturbance.

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Re: Low 91L more organized in open Atlantic

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 02, 2010 6:49 am

Monday Morning Update

Tropical disturbance status quo

The tropical disturbance appears to be seperating from the ITCZ as another band of showers forms to its south. A circulation seems to be developing now. NHC mentioned several hours ago that a low level circulation was not seen on the ASCAT satellite. This has been the problem over the past several days - a broad low with a mid level circulation. A ship report to the southeast of the broad circulation reported a westerly wind indicating that a low may now have actually developed. Our estimation is that this low is still on the border of tropical depression status. It is interesting to note that another tropical wave several hundred miles east southeast of the tropical disturbance has deeper convection than the disturbance itself.

As of 8am edt / ast the tropical disturbance was centered near 12.5 N / 40 W or over 1400 miles east of the Windwards. Movment was west northwest at about 10-15 mph.


:idea: Forecast models take have definitely shifted the track northeastward over the past few days. The general track takes the low about 100 miles northeast of the Leewards in about 3 days then east of the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. in about 7-8 days. As mentioned yesterday, forecast models can have a high range of error especially several days out.

:!: Interests in the northeastern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and eastern U.S. should follow this disturbance.

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Re: TD 4

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:36 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Tropical depression 4 classified

NHC officially classified the tropical disturbance a short while ago as a westerly wind was found on the ASCAT. We had previously mentioned that a west wind was also found on a ship report indicating a closed low. Tropical depression 4 will strengthen some, then face some wind shear, limiting its development in a few days.

As of 2 pm edt / ast tropical depression 4 was centered near 12.7° N / 40.1° W or about 1350 miles east of the Windwards. Movment was west northwest at about 17 mph.


:idea: Forecast models take have definitely shifted the track northeastward over the past few days. The general track takes the low about 100 miles northeast of the Leewards in about 3 days then east of the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. in about 7-8 days. As mentioned yesterday, forecast models can have a high range of error especially several days out.

:!: Interests in the northeastern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and eastern U.S. should follow this disturbance.

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Re: TD 4

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Aug 02, 2010 7:59 pm

Monday Night Update

Tropical depression 4 changes little

Tropical depression 4 has changed little today. The convection is rather skimpy. Easterly wind shear has ripped convection from the center of circulation.

As of 9 pm edt / ast tropical depression 4 was centered near 13.0° N / 44.0° W or about 1100 miles east of the Windwards. Movment was west northwest at about 20 mph. Top sustained winds 30 mph (NHC 35 mph).


:idea: Forecast models take have still shifted the track northeastward over the past few days. The general track takes the low about 100-200 miles northeast of the Leewards in about 2 days then east of the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. to near Bermuda. As mentioned yesterday, forecast models can have a high range of error especially several days out.

:!: Interests in the northeastern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and eastern U.S. should follow this disturbance.

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Re: Colin

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 03, 2010 6:09 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Colin forms

In agreement with NHC, convection with tropical depression 4 has built closer to the center of circulation and the structure has become more organized. Because of this, Colin has been upgraded to tropical storm strength. A buoy has measured a wind gust of about 35 mph and seas up to almost 10 feet not to far from colin. We think that Colin's tropical storm winds are not very expansive yet. After studying visible satellite imagery, we are estimating Colin a little farther south than NHC.

As of 7 am edt / ast tropical storm Colin was centered near 13.7° N / 47.5° W or about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Movment was west northwest at about 23 mph. Top sustained winds 40 mph (NHC 40 mph). Pressure 1006 mb.


:idea: The forecast track takes Colin low about 100-200 miles northeast of the Leewards in about 1 1/2 days then east of the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. to near Bermuda. As mentioned yesterday, forecast models can have a high range of error especially several days out.

:!: Interests in the northeastern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and eastern U.S. should follow Colin.

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Re: Colin

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 03, 2010 1:01 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Colin fighting wind shear

After studying the visible satellite imagery it looks like the low level center is actually farther north than either NHC or we thought. In fact a well defined low level circulation was briefly apparent on the northwest side of the convection before being clouded over again. Another well defined spin is farther southeast and must be more of a mid level circulation. Once again giving testimony of how badly we miss the Quickscat satellite! :Taz: The Quickscat imagery helped us tremendously in determining where the low level center was located when it was not clear on satellite imagery.

Colin continues to fight wind shear and is fighting for its life right now. It is difficult for a tropical cyclone to develop when it is moving this fast. At this time Colin is predicted to stay on this quick pace around the Bermuda-Azores high.

As of 2 pm edt / ast tropical storm Colin was centered near 15° N / 52° W or about 600 miles east of Martinique. Movment was west northwest at about 23 mph. Top sustained winds 40 mph (NHC 40 mph). Pressure 1006 mb.


:idea: The forecast track takes Colin about 50-100 miles northeast of the Leewards in about a day then east of the Bahamas and offshore of the U.S. to near Bermuda. With colin staying weak it is being steered farther west with the low level flow. This will take it closer to the Leewards - as the forecasts predicted several days ago! As mentioned yesterday, forecast models can have a high range of error especially several days out.

:!: Interests in the northeastern Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda, and eastern U.S. should follow Colin.

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Re: Colin

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Aug 03, 2010 4:12 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Colin degenerates

As per our previous update Colin has been struggling. NHC concurred with that assessment and now has said that it has degenerated into a remnant low. It was moving as fast as you will see a weak tropical system move. The forward motion was too much for it to build convection. It is interesting to note that as we mentioned earlier, it looked like this system formed out of the monsoon trough. In the Atlantic basin the va