Paloma

Tropical cyclone archives of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Nov 09, 2008 12:25 am

Sunday Early AM Update
Paloma still over Camaguey province Cuba

At 12:30 am est, hurricane Paloma was near Camaguey or just south of there. Unfortunately, Camaguey stopped reporting observations at 8 pm est. The position estimate is being made by radar fixes, which also, stopped working at 10:15 pm est (Camaguey). Other radars much farther away are still operational. Satellite imagery is not a great help either, as the eye is no longer visible and wind shear is making the cloud structure very asymmetrical. Also with Paloma over Cuba, the hurricane hunters can not send a vortex fix.

Officially an estimate of 968 mb was made by NHC at 10 pm est with winds at 115 mph. We seriously doubt that winds are that strong. NHC tends to error on the high side of surface sustained winds. We'll estimate that the top winds are about 85 mph at this time. When NHC puts out their 1 am est advisory they will likely go with about 100 mph. Check the link below if you want to see.

Hurricane Paloma will decrease to tropical storm strength during the morning. Upper air wind shear should keep the weakening trend going. Interests in the south central Bahamas will see rain heavy at times and tropical storm force winds Sunday.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 1 - I.R. Satellite
Image

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 2 - Cuban Radar 10 pm est
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Nov 09, 2008 8:08 am

Sunday AM Update
Paloma over Camaguey province Cuba - very weak

As mentioned on our previous update, there was little data to forecast Paloma from last night. It is also very evident that NHC has way over forecast the wind speed. The first visible satellite imagery shows that Paloma is still over central Camaguey province, south of Camaguey. The Camaguey radar and observations are still not operational, but a radar farther away also confirms the position.

Officially Paloma is 70 mph. There is NO deep convection near the center of circulation. We estimate a generous 40 mph. The models, NHC and we were incorrect about the motion. It now appears that the circulation may possibly die over Cuba. If it moves offshore, it won't be a tropical storm as NHC's official forecast shows.

The wind shear has totally devastated the circulation and the deep convection is disorganized over the Bahamas. This is excellent news for the Bahamas, which will only see rain and thundershowers, with only wind gusts in the storms.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 1 - I.R. Satellite 7:15 am est
Image

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 2 - Cuban Radar 6:30 am est
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Nov 09, 2008 10:15 am

Sunday Late AM Mini Update
Paloma drifting west

The latest visible satellite imagery shows that Paloma is stationary or drifting west over southern Camaguey province. It appears that it is not on NHC's track to drift toward the Bahamas. Since the low level flow is disconnected with the upper air flow it should probably dissipate over Cuba.

NHC still has it at 60 mph. We estimate that it is now a tropical depression with top sustained winds of 35 mph. There remains no deep convection with the low center
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Nov 09, 2008 2:29 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update
Paloma weakening over Camaguey province

Paloma is nearly stationary in Camaguey province drifting about. There still is no deep convection near the center of circulation. Some heavy showers / storms are near Great Inagua and Andros Island in the Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos.

Again, we believe that NHC has well over estimated the wind speed. We think that Paloma is a tropical depression with top sustained winds 30-35 mph.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 1 - I.R. Satellite
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Hurricane Update: Paloma's last advisory

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Nov 09, 2008 11:38 pm

Sunday Night Update
Paloma now officially "remnants"

The National Hurricane Center has written its last advisory on Paloma. Paloma has drifted all day and several hours ago started moving north. It is now on the north coast void of convection. It may barely move off of the coast of Cuba tonight. Deep convective bursts are noticed near Long Island, Great Exuma, and east of the Abacos, Cat Island, and Eluthera, Bahamas.

This will be our last update also. Let's hope the hurricane season is now over! There will be a summary of Paloma in our "hurricane Picture gallery" soon. We wish a speedy recovery to those on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac which took the full force of Paloma. Our prayers are with you.

TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 1 - I.R. Satellite 10:45 pm est
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Paloma's circulation is still discernable in eastern Gulf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Nov 13, 2008 2:52 pm

Thursday afternoon Update
Paloma remnants in eastern Gulf of Mexico

Paloma's circulation is still discernable and is moving northward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will "make landfall" on the Florida Panhandle with little fanfare. :idea: It is so weak that the forecast models don't even know it's there!


TropicalWeather.net's Tropical Pic 1 - I.R. Satellite Thursday Afternoon
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