Omar

Tropical cyclone archives of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Oct 12, 2008 11:55 pm

Monday Early Morning Update
Tropical disturbance producing heavy rain in Caribbean

A tropical disturbance is centered at 15.3 N 69.1 W or about 300 miles southwest of San Juan, P.R.. Satellite imagery shows that a surface low has formed and appears to be moving west. Deep convection is producing heavy rain east of the low center, especially south of Puerto Rico.

Forecast models develop the low some and move in north toward the Mona passage. We're not sure if this is a good solution yet. Southwesterly wind shear is keeping the deep convection east. If this continues the low may never develop. The next 24 hours will be critical if this low is going to organize.

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Last edited by Caribbean Traveler on Tue Oct 14, 2008 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Oct 13, 2008 8:43 am

Monday Late Morning Update
Tropical disturbance's heavy rain expanding

The apparent low center noted last night about 300 miles ssw of San Juan appears to be drifting southwest and dissipating. At this time deep convection looks very impressive, but no surface low has developed yet. It's possible that a new low center may try to develop farther east under that cluster.

Heavy rain causing flash flooding and mudslides is a real threat in Puerto Rico. Right now, the heaviest rain is in the eastern half of the country.

The Hurricane Hunters may check this system out this afternoon.

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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:45 pm

Monday Afternoon Update
T.D. 15 almost Omar

A large area of heavy rain continues south of Puerto Rico by about 300 miles. Flash flooding and mudslides will be a concern for Puerto Rico over the next few days as this system slowly moves toward Puerto Rico. Rainfall of 5-10" may be expected. The Hurricane Hunters are now investigating.

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Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:53 am

Tuesday Early Morning Update
T.D. 15 bringing heavy rain to southern Caribbean

A Hurricane Hunter was investigating and sent back a vortex mesage from just before 9 pm edt. Surface winds were estimated at 37 knots and flight level a little weaker. As we mentioned in the earlier update, this is almost a tropical storm. In fact with the lastest satellite imagery, we think that the National Hurricane Center may name it at 5 am edt.

Very heavy convection has drifted south and is near Aruba, Bon Aire and Curacao. These are usually dry locations.

The models still take this northward toward Puerto Rico in a couple of days. Threre is the threat of heavy rain with 10'+ of rainfall.


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