Florence

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
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Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 01, 2018 10:46 am

Saturday Midday Update

Florence near the Cabo Verde Islands

The Weather Situation
Florence is showing organized structure west of the Cabo Islands. Some heavy showers are possible as it pulls away into the open Atlantic.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 14.8 N / 27.8 W or 225 miles west of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving WNW at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1003 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Florence will likely recurve into the open north Atlantic over the next several days. It does not appear to be a threat to the Caribbean, Gulf or eastern U. S.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:27 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Florence near the Cabo Verde Islands

The Weather Situation
Florence is slightly more organized but is fighting wind shear and is over marginal water temperature for strengthening.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 17.4 N / 34.6 W or 700 miles WNW of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving WNW at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1000 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Florence will likely recurve into the open north Atlantic over the next several days. It does not appear to be a threat to the Caribbean, Gulf or eastern U. S.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:01 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Florence could be a threat

The Weather Situation
Florence has not changed much in structure compared to 24 hours ago.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 18.3 N / 38.7 W or 980 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
New forecast models show a wide spread in the long range. Some still take it out to sea and other give a possible threat to the eastern U.S. or eastern Canada. It would be prudent to follow the track of Florence.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:09 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Florence in open Atlantic

The Weather Situation
Florence theoretically is a minimal hurricane. IMO it is a tropical storm still

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 19.7 N / 42.5 W or 1270 ENE miles west of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving WNW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 990 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models have returned to keeping Florence east of the U.S. east coast as well as Bermuda. Interests in these areas should still follow the progress of Florence.

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NHC Forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 446.shtml?

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_atr1. ... e#contents
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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:04 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Florence strengthens rapidly

The Weather Situation
Florence has ungone rapid deepening over the past 24 hours despite facing wind shear. Interests in Bermuda and the US east coast should continue to follow Florence.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 22.0 N / 45.7 W or 1370 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles. It was moving NW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 125 mph. Pressure was estimated at 957 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are keeping Florence just east of the US east coast several days away.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:35 pm

Thursday Night Update

Florence weakens rapidly

The Weather Situation
Florence had weakened over the past 24 hours under strong SW wind shear. It is possible that Florence is not a hurricane.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 25.0 N / 49.6 W or 1050 miles ESE of Bermuda. It was moving NW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 989 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are keeping Florence just east of the US east coast. The time of concern will be sometime midweek next week. Interests along the US east coast and Bermuda should follow the progress of Florence.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:56 pm

Friday Evening Update

Florence likely to strengthen soon

The Weather Situation
It appears that wind shear is weakening over Florence. This will allow strengthening, possibly to major hurricane strength east of the Carolinas by the middle of next week.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 24.8 N / 52.5 W or 905 miles ESE of Bermuda. It was moving west at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 996 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are keeping Florence just east of the US east coast. The time of concern will be sometime midweek next week. Interests along the US east coast and Bermuda should follow the progress of Florence.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:57 am

Saturday Afternoon Update

Florence on its way to hurricane again

The Weather Situation
Florence is winding up and should reach hurricane strength within the next 24 hours.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 24.5 N / 54.3 W or 835 miles SE of Bermuda. It was moving west at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 995 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are keeping Florence just east of the US east coast or making landfall in the Carolina's. Interests along the US east coast and Bermuda should follow the progress of Florence.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:51 pm

Sunday Evening Update

Florence may strengthen quickly

The Weather Situation
Florence is strengthening and may enter a rapid deepening phase soon. Interests along the east coast, especially from South Carolina to Virginia should follow the latest on Florence.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 24.4 N / 57.0 W or 720 miles SE of Bermuda. It was moving west at 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 85 mph. Pressure was estimated at 975 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are keeping Florence just east of Cape Hatteras, NC or making landfall in eastern North Carolina. Interests along the US east coast and Bermuda should follow the progress of Florence. Slowing is forecast as it approaches the coast. If Florence does make landfall and stalls, massive amounts of rainfall will likely occur causing very serious flooding. North Carolina and Virginia are the top concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:20 am

Monday Midday Update

Florence now a major hurricane

The Weather Situation
Florence has organized rapidly during the last 12 hours. It will be in a low shear environment and over warm waters during the next few days before landfall. This will allow for further strengthening. Interests on the east coast especially South Carolina and North Carolina should prepare.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 25.0 N / 60.0 W or 580 miles SSE of Bermuda / 1240 miles ESE of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It was moving west at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 115 mph. Pressure was estimated at 962 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models are similar but may have shifted a little south. The most reliable models bring Florence inland from the upper South Carolina coast northward to the southern North Carolina coast.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:23 pm

Monday Evening Update

Florence now cat 4

The Weather Situation
Florence has organized rapidly during the last 12 hours. It will be in a low shear environment and over warm waters during the next few days before landfall. This will allow for further strengthening. Interests on the east coast especially South Carolina and North Carolina should prepare.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 25.4 N / 61.1 W or 525 miles SSE of Bermuda / 1170 miles ESE of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It was moving WNW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 140 mph. Pressure was estimated at 939 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
The most reliable models bring Florence inland from the upper South Carolina coast northward to the southern North Carolina coast.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:42 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Florence a little weaker

The Weather Situation
Reconnaissance aircraft in Florence has found that the hurricane has weakened some overnight. It appears that an eye wall replacement cycle is occurring. A hurricane will temporarily lose strength as one eye wall weakens and as a new one forms and contracts. Restrengthening is expected during the day today.

:!: Interests on the east coast especially South Carolina and North Carolina should finish preparations. Effects will be felt well inland and residents of those states should be prepared for several days of very bad conditions. Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 26.4 N / 64.6 W or 405 miles south of Bermuda / 950 miles ESE of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It was moving WNW at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph. Pressure was estimated at 950 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models bring Florence inland later Thursday near the southern North Carolina coast. There is a possibility of it stalling and remaining near the coast or just inland through Saturday. After that models are split on motion but still keep the chance of heavy rainfall and strong winds slowly dissipating through Sunday or Monday. It will be very important to see where Florence stalls. If it is offshore, it will stay strong for a much longer period of time. If it stalls inland it will weaken more rapidly.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, extreme flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 7:51 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Florence has not changed much

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows that the eyewall may be shrinking some, indicating a new strengthening phase. Florence is expected to be at maximum strength during the next 24 hours as it crosses warm Gulf Stream waters. The wind field has also expanded since yesterday, meaning the the effects are growing in size.

:!: Interests in South Carolina and North Carolina should finish preparations. Models have shifted south so residences of the Georgia coast should rush to complete preparations too. Effects will be felt well inland and residents of those states should be prepared for very bad conditions into the weekend. Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 29.4 N / 70.7 W or 530 miles SE of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It was moving WNW at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 130 mph. Pressure was estimated at 943 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models bring Florence near the coast around Wilmington, NC late Thursday / early Friday. Models have slowed and it may stall just offshore or barely inland. This is due to the upper level wind pattern weakening as it approaches the coast. Florence will be sitting under a high pressure center with no winds aloft to guide it for a period of time.

Models have also shifted southward. The trend is for Florence to move SW and moving inland somewhere on the South Carolina coast this weekend and head toward eastern Georgia as it weakens.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, extreme flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:11 pm

Wednesday Night Update

Some good news

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows dry air intruding on the south side of the eye wall. Reconnaissance aircraft have found top winds only to 115 mph since late this afternoon. We are hoping the trend with the dry air continues to disrupt the circulation.

:!: Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Florence was centered at 31.5 N / 73.2 W or 335 miles SE of Wilmington, North Carolina. It was moving NW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 115 mph. Pressure was estimated at 956 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models bring Florence near the coast around Wilmington, NC late Thursday / early Friday. Models have slowed and it may stall just offshore or barely inland. This is due to the upper level wind pattern weakening as it approaches the coast. Florence will be sitting under a high pressure center with no winds aloft to guide it for a period of time.

Models have also shifted southward. The trend is for Florence to move SW and moving inland somewhere on the South Carolina coast this weekend and head toward eastern Georgia as it weakens.

Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, extreme flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Re: Florence

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:13 am

Thursday Morning Update

Raindbands just offshore

The Weather Situation
The latest radar shows that rain bands are just east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Rain will be moving inland shortly. Buoy data indicates that winds are gusting near tropical storm force close to the coast and seas are approaching 20 feet offshore.

Satellite imagery indicates that currently the strongest winds are on the south side of the circulation with some dry air and / or shear disturbing the eye wall, especially on the east side of the circulation. This has weakened the circulation, but shear and warm water temps may allow for some strengthening again just before landfall.


:!: Severe flooding / wind damage / storm surge could prolong problems for an extended period of time. Expect widespread power outages.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Florence was centered at 33.1 N / 75.1 W or 170 miles ESE of Wilmington, North Carolina. It was moving NW at 12 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 956 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Forecast models bring Florence near the coast north of Wilmington, NC late today / into the early Friday morning hours. It will then drift south toward the upper South Carolina coast Saturday.

The heaviest rainfall will be over the eastern 1/2 of North Carolina & NE South Carolina Friday. Rainfall remains in place over nearly the whole state of North Carolina Saturday and the northern half of South Carolina also. Sunday the heaviest rainfall will shift into western North Carolina and SW Virginia. The rest of North Carolina and northern half of South Carolina will still see some rain, occasionally heavy.


Remember a hurricane is not a point and effects will stretch well beyond these locations.

Storm surge, wind damage, extreme flooding rainfall are all serious concerns at this time.

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Morehead NWS Radar
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no
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