Alberto

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri May 25, 2018 10:05 am

Friday Midday Update

Alberto forms

The Weather Situation
Visible satellite imagery clearly show a surface circulation just east of the Yucatan peninsula. Very heavy rainfall is primarily on the eastern half of the circulation.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM EDT / 10:00 AM CDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 19.7 N / 86.8 W or 55 miles south of Cozumel, Mexico. It was moving NNE at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the north central Gulf coast by late this weekend into early Monday (Memorial Day). At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri May 25, 2018 2:10 pm

Tropical Weather Situation
Recon is heading toward Alberto. Satellite show one low level circulation and possibly another low / mid level circulation. We'll know for sure soon!

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat May 26, 2018 8:40 am

Saturday Late Morning Update

Alberto has problems, but still a concern

The Weather Situation
Visible satellite imagery appear to show Alberto moving more NE than north as per the official NHC advisory. This would take it over the western Cuba which would weaken development chances. In addition, it is fighting wind shear and dry air. Theses are all factors which will slow or stop development.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT / 7:00 AM CDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 20.9 N / 85.1 W or 70 miles south of western tip of Cuba. It was moving north at 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the north central Gulf coast by early next week. At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat May 26, 2018 2:11 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Alberto reorganizing

The Weather Situation
Visible satellite now shows a new center. The southern low center has dissipated this afternoon. The northern mid level center has worked its way to the surface and is now the main low.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2:00 PM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 22.8 N / 85.2 W or 195 miles SW of the Dry Tortugas. It was moving north at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the north central Gulf coast by early next week. At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun May 27, 2018 6:57 am

Sunday Morning Update

Alberto strengthens a little

The Weather Situation
Visible satellite show that deep convection is building on the eastern side of the circulation center. Alberto appears to be acquiring more tropical characteristics and may be called tropical later today. Increase in strength is expected and Alberto may either be a strong tropical storm or even possibly a minimal cat 1 hurricane before landfall Monday.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 26.3 N / 84.4 W or 240 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. It was moving north at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45mph. Pressure was estimated at 997 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the Panhandle of Florida making landfall Monday. At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard with some gusty winds, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes. Tropical storm force winds are possible where tropical storm advisories are in effect as well as farther inland into Florida, Georgia and Alabama. Tropical force winds are 39-73 mph.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun May 27, 2018 2:16 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Alberto becoming tropical

The Weather Situation
It has been interesting to watch the satellite imagery as the deep convection is now mainly on the west side of the circulation and dry air wrapping to the east. Dry air coupled with the forward speed now seems to hold down any strengthening above tropical storm strength.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2:00 PM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 27.7 N / 84.7 W or 140 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida. It was moving north at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the Panhandle of Florida making landfall later tonight / early Monday. At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard with some gusty winds, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes. Tropical storm force winds are possible where tropical storm advisories are in effect as well as farther inland into Florida, Georgia and Alabama. Tropical force winds are 39-73 mph.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun May 27, 2018 9:11 pm

Sunday Night Update

Alberto will make landfall Monday

The Weather Situation
Well, I'm not buying the 65 mph winds. There has been a trend over the years for NHC to go with wind gusts as the winds for the advisory. The hurricane hunter found a small area earlier of winds to around 65 mph. In reality if a tropical storm has winds to 65 mph gusts should be to around 80 mph. I would say that this is a 50 mph tropical storm with gusts to 65 mph in a small area south of the center.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 28.4 N / 85.7 W or 100 miles SSW of Apalachicola, Florida. It was moving NW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the Panhandle of Florida making landfall Monday. At this time heavy rainfall is the main hazard with some gusty winds, but interests in the eastern and northern Gulf should monitor for any changes. Tropical storm force winds are possible where tropical storm advisories are in effect as well as farther inland into Florida, Georgia and Alabama. Tropical force winds are 39-73 mph.

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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 28, 2018 7:03 am

Monday Morning Update

Heaviest storms just south of FL Panhandle

The Weather Situation
I'm still not buying the 65 mph winds. I think that NHC is waaay overestimating again. A current recon aircraft is near the center and the latest obs don't indicate anything near 65mph. I'll stick with 50 mph - and that's just in a small area. Anyhow, Alberto tried to become tropical yesterday for a while and it may have been. Deep convection was building near the center. Now dry air has totally taken over and likely has sealed the fate of Alberto as an extratropical cyclone.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 29.0 N / 86.0 W or 100 miles SSE of Destin, Florida. It was moving north at 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 65 mph. Pressure was estimated at 991 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto is expected to move generally north toward the Panhandle of Florida making landfall today.

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Tropicast: IR Satellite
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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 28, 2018 8:07 am

9 AM EDT update:

Alberto just went very close to buoy 42039 south of the Florida Panhandle. Top winds were 21 kts. Last night top winds were 39 kts with a gust to 51 kts when the convection was much more active.

The bridge to St. George Island just measured a gust to 45 mph. This is the highest wind seen so far.... not close to the 65 mph sustained winds in the official advisory.
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Re: Alberto

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 28, 2018 1:34 pm

Monday Afternoon Update

Alberto just offshore

The Weather Situation
NHC brought the winds down finally. There have been few reports of wind over 40 mph at buoys or land stations. The main concern will be very heavy rainfall and localized flooding. In reality this is a minimal 40 mph subtropical storm with isolated gusts approaching 50 mph in squalls.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2:00 PM EDT Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered at 29.8 N / 85.9 W or 30 miles SSW of Panama City, Florida. It was moving north at 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Alberto will move inland this afternoon west of Panama City Beach, FL.

Tropicast: Visible Satellite
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Tropicast: Radar
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NHC Forecast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/M ... 742.shtml?

NHC Track
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... e#contents
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