Irma

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Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:45 pm

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Irma a tropical storm

The Weather Situation
The disturbance near Cabo Verde has developed enough convection to be classified.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 3:00 PM AST Irma was centered at 16.4 N / 30.3 W or 470 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It was moving west at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma is expected to become a hurricane. Forecast models have varied over the past several days on it path beyond the next 5-7 days. Interests from the Caribbean to Bermuda to the U.S. should monitor Irma closely.

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Aug 31, 2017 9:51 am

Thursday Morning Update

Irma a hurricane

The Weather Situation
Irma has rapidly strengthened. It is likely to become a major hurricane by later today.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 PM AST Irma was centered at 16.9 N / 33.8 W or 650 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands / 1845 east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving WNW at 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 100 mph. Pressure was estimated at 979 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma is expected to become a major hurricane. Forecast models have varied over the past several days on it path beyond the next 5-7 days. Interests from the Caribbean to Bermuda to the U.S. should monitor Irma closely.

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:10 am

Friday Midday Update

Irma changes little

The Weather Situation
Irma has ungone an eyewall replacement cycle. That is when an outer eye forms past the inner eye. Eventually the inner eye dissipates and the out one takes over. There is a transfer of energy during this time, that is why a hurricane's intensity pauses.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 18.5 N / 37.8 W or 1580 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving WNW at 13 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 mph. Pressure was estimated at 972 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma will begin to move more west, then WSW as a ridge builds to the north the next few days. After that, a trough will begin to move it northward. This motion is what the models disagree on beyond five days. Interests from the Caribbean to Bermuda to the U.S. should monitor Irma closely.

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 02, 2017 8:09 am

Saturday Morning Update

Irma in middle of tropical Atlantic

The Weather Situation
It appears that Irma is now moving a little south of due west. The eye appears more prominent and I believe that it is a major hurricane again.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 9:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 18.8 N / 42.7 W or 1275 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving WSW at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph (110 mph NHC 5am). Pressure was estimated at 970 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma will begin to move more west, then WSW as a ridge builds to the north the next few days. After that, a trough will begin to move it northward. This motion is what the models disagree on beyond five days. Interests from the Caribbean to Bermuda to the U.S. should monitor Irma closely. :!: Right now models show Irma possibly affecting the eastern U.S. Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 8:09 am

Sunday Morning Update

Irma cat 3 again

The Weather Situation
After briefly becoming a cat 3 hurricane earlier, Irma has now regained that status.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 9:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 17.8 N / 48.0 W or 870 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving WSW at 15 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 115 mph. Pressure was estimated at 969 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma will begin to move more west, then WSW as a ridge builds to the north the next few days. After that, a trough will begin to move it northward. This motion is what the models disagree on beyond five days. Interests from the NE Caribbean to Bermuda to the Bahamas / U.S. should monitor Irma closely. :!: Right now models show Irma possibly affecting the eastern U.S. Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:05 am

Monday Morning Update

Serious threat to the Islands and possible SE US

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows that Irma now looks like a classic hurricane. It is gaining strength as it heads toward the Leewards. Now it is time to make preliminary hurricane plans in the SE US!

Current Tropical Weather
As of 9:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 16.8 N / 52.9 W or 550 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving west at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 947 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models are indicating the Irma will affect the Leewards and northern Antilles. It may then affect the SE US. The Gulf can not be ruled out yet! Interests from the northern Caribbean to the Bahamas to SE U.S. / Gulf should monitor Irma closely. :!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:52 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Irma now a cat 5

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows Irma taking a "buzz saw" look. This is reserved for the strongest hurricanes. It indicates a very strong, thick eyewall and very good outflow aloft favorable for additional strengthening. It appears that Irma is starting to turn more to the WNW as of a few hours ago.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 16.7 N / 57.7 W or 270 miles east of Antigua. It was moving west at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 175 mph. Pressure was estimated at 929 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models are indicating that Irma will affect the Leewards and northern Antilles. For 24 hours now, models also show that south Florida is becoming more likely to see an impact. Both models turn Irma sharply north in the vicinity of south Florida. It is still too early to tell if it will just be east, over the Bahamas, directly over Florida, or into the eastern Gulf. :!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:32 am

Tuesday Midday Update

Only 4 hurricanes more powerful than Irma

The Weather Situation
Irma is now in a rare classification. Only four hurricanes in the Atlantic basin have been stronger since records have been kept. Hurricane Allen in 1980 was the strongest at 190 mph.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 11:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 16.8 N / 58.4 W or 225 miles east of Antigua. It was moving west at 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. Pressure was estimated at 931 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models are indicating that Irma will affect the Leewards and northern Antilles. For 24 hours now, models also show that south Florida is becoming more likely to see an large impact. Both models turn Irma sharply north in the vicinity of south Florida. It is still too early to tell if it will just be east, over the Bahamas, directly over Florida, or into the eastern Gulf. :!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:15 pm

Irma is the second most powerful Atlantic hurricane in terms of wind speed. NHC upgraded to 185 mph earlier this afternoon
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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 06, 2017 5:30 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Irma battering Leewards

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery shows that Irma moved over the northern part of Barbuda after midnight and now is near St Barts and St. Martin / St. Maarten. It will be moving toward the Virgin Islands later today. There will be some fluctuations in Irma's strength the next few days, but it should remain a cat 5 or 4.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 17.9 N / 62.6 W or 35 miles ESE of St. Martin / St. Maarten. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 185 mph. Pressure was estimated at 914 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models are indicating that Irma will continue just north of the northern Antilles. Irma will be over the southern Bahamas / Turks - Caicos Thursday night. Models have moved east again after that. It is too early to tell if Irma will turn directly over south Florida or recurve just east over the Bahamas. It will in the vicinity of south Florida Saturday night / Sunday morning :!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:08 am

Winds stay at 185 mph at 11 AM AST.

A NOAA station on Barbuda reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. It measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed. A minimum pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy.

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:07 pm

Wednesday Night Update

Irma north of Puerto Rico

The Weather Situation
Heavy damage was reported today across the Leewards as Irma moved over Barbuda and St. Martin / St. Maarten. Irma is slowly pulling away from Puerto Rico.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 PM AST Irma was centered at 19.1 N / 66.1 W or 50 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 185 mph. Pressure was estimated at 914 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Models are moving slightly east from over south Florida to staying just offshore of the eastern Florida coast. It is too early to tell if Irma will turn directly over south Florida or recurve just east over the Bahamas. It will in the vicinity of south Florida Saturday night / Sunday morning. The hurricane is now projected north about Monday near the Georgia / South Carolina coast. If Irma stays offshore of Florida, the SE coast may take the strongest effects.

:!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:23 am

Thursday Morning Update

Irma north Dominican Republic

The Weather Situation
Satellite imagery show that the eye wall is not quite as impressive on the western side. Outlflow still looks good in all directions at this point. It is too early to see if the mountains of the Dominican Republic will disrupt of the flow of the hurricane as it approaches that Bahamas.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 20.1 N / 69.0 W or 165 miles SE of Grand Turk. It was moving WNW at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph. Pressure was estimated at 921 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma will move through the Turks and Caicos today into the southern Bahamas. Models are moving slightly east from over south Florida to staying just offshore of the eastern Florida coast. It is too early to tell if Irma will turn directly over south Florida or recurve just east over the Bahamas. It will in the vicinity of south Florida Saturday night / Sunday morning. The hurricane is now projected north about Monday near the Georgia / South Carolina coast. If Irma stays offshore of Florida, the SE coast may take the strongest effects.

:!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 07, 2017 4:01 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Irma over Turks and Caicos

The Weather Situation
The western part of the eyewall is thinner than the eastern side indicating slight weakening. This may be a result of the effects of traveling north of Hispaniola. The high mountains often disrupt air flow in a hurricane.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5:00 PM AST Irma was centered at 20.9 N / 71.1 W or 40 miles south of Grand Turk. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 175 mph. Pressure was estimated at 922 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma is heading through the southern Bahamas tonight. Models remain split. The Euro turns Irma into south Florida through the Keys and the GFS turns Irma just east of Miami Saturday night / Sunday morning. The hurricane is now projected north about Monday near the Georgia / South Carolina coast. If Irma stays offshore of Florida, the SE coast may take the strongest effects. All interests along the coast need to complete actions to protect life and property now.

:!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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Re: Irma

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 08, 2017 9:01 am

Friday Morning Update

Irma weakens some

The Weather Situation
Irma has weakened during an eye wall replacement cycle. Some of the flow may have been hampered as it passed north of Hispaniola's high mountains during the last 24 hours. Additional strengthening is possible again before landfall. It will move between the north coast of Cuba and the southern Bahamas today.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8:00 AM AST Irma was centered at 21.8 N / 74.7 W or 450 miles SE of Miami. It was moving WNW at 16 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 150 mph. Pressure was estimated at 927 MB.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Irma is now expected to move into south Florida through the Keys Saturday night into Sunday morning. It will then move north over the peninsula into Georgia through Tuesday. All interests along the coast and inland over the Florida peninsula need to complete actions to protect life and property now. Residents on the Georgia and South Carolina coast also need to finish preparations.

:!: Pay close attention to the forecasts!

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