Bret

Hurricane / tropical storm forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. Updated as necessary all year.
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Bret

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:16 am

Monday Morning Update

System is approaching South American coast

The Weather Situation
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is east of the southern Windwards

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM EDT Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 was centered at 8.7 N / 55.7 W or 400 miles ESE of Trinidad. It was moving west at 23 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1005 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 is traveling west at a very low latitude. Locations like Trinidad are usually south of what is considered the "hurricane belt". It will likely be classified as Bret later today and skirt near the northern South American coast. The official NHC forecast has the system moving north of South America, but there is a possibility that it will move inland in South America near Trinidad and disrupt the circulation.

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Re: Bret

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:07 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Bret near Venezuela coast

The Weather Situation
Bret moved over Trinidad last night and is now moving back into the southern Caribbean, north of the Venezuela coast. It is extremely rare for a tropical cyclone to track this far south. Bret is currently facing strong southerly winds aloft. Wind shear will eventually tear the system apart.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 8 AM AST Bret was centered at 11.1 N / 63.1 W or 20 miles ENE of Isla Margarita. It was moving WNW at 21 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1008 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Bret will move WNW just north along the South American coast during the next few days. It will pass north of Aruba bringing some squally weather to the A B C islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao). It will likely run into more hostile wind conditions and degrade into a tropical depression.

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Rich Johnson
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Re: Bret

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Jun 20, 2017 4:30 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Bret dissipates

The Weather Situation
What is left of a weak circulation is approaching the ABC islands just north of the South American coast. Deep, unorganized convection continues in the Caribbean.

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Rich Johnson
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Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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