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Simon

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 5:45 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Morning Update

Simon named

The Weather Situation
Enough banding has developed for Simon to be classified as a tropical storm WSW of Manzanilllo. A few heavy storms are brushing the coast in the area and there is the potential for flash flooding. Rainfall amounts could total up to 5 inches before the storm moves away from west central Mexico.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Tropical storm Simon was centered at 18.1 N / 106.1 W or about 135 miles WSW Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 10 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1002 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to move away from the west central coast of Mexico and west of Los Cabos this weekend. It may move toward the central Baja as a weakened tropical cyclone around Tuesday or Wednesday. It is possible that Simon will become a hurricane during the next 48 hours before it encounters wind shear and cooler water.

Re: Simon

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 7:26 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Simon is slowly strengthening this Thursday evening. It is moving away from west central Mexico. The forecast still calls for Simon to become a hurricane but stay west of Cabo. The Los Cabos will be close enough to be affected by some rain bands.

Re: Simon

Posted: Fri Oct 03, 2014 11:05 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Afternoon Update

Simon slowly strengthening

The Weather Situation
Simon is slowly on its way to becoming a hurricane. Some of the rain bands are still affecting west central Mexico near Cabo Corrientes to near Mazatlan. Other rain bands are near the southern tip of the Baja. The main effect from Simon over the southern Baja and western Mexico will be from heavy thundershowers and higher than normal surf.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 AM PDT / 11 AM EDT Tropical storm Simon was centered at 18.6 N / 109.8 W or about 80 miles east of Socorro Island, Mexico / 295 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 996 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to move west of the southern Baja this weekend. It may move toward the central Baja as a weakened tropical cyclone around Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
Image

Re: Simon

Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:31 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Night Update

Simon a category 3 hurricane

The Weather Situation
Simon has undergone a rapid deepening phase today. This strengthening will soon be over as the hurricane moves into cooler water. A band of thundershowers has developed over the central Baja. The main threat will be from high than normal surf.


Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Simon was centered at 20.6 N / 115.0 W or about 365 WSW of southern tip of Baja / 495 miles south of Puenta Eugenia. It was moving WNW at about 14 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 950 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to move more toward the northeast. This will take it toward the central Baja by Wednesday.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
Image

Tropicast: Pacific Rainbow Satellite
Image

Re: Simon

Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 4:07 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Evening Update

Simon a minimal hurricane

The Weather Situation
Simon weakened as fast as it strengthened a few days ago. It topped out at 130 mph making it the 6th category four hurricane of the eastern pacific hurricane season. It now has moved over colder water which has robbed its energy. Simon will not be a hurricane in a few hours. Scattered showers and storms will continue over the Baja and diminish tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical storm Simon was centered at 23.4 N / 117.5 W or about 340 miles SSW of Puenta Eugenia. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 977 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to recurve and move into the northern Baja Wednesday.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
Image

Re: Simon

Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 7:52 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Evening Update

Simon sheared

The Weather Situation
Simon is being sheared by southwesterly winds. That is pushing the showers and storms to the eastern side of the circulation. A few showers and storms will linger over the northern Baja tomorrow.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT Tropical storm Simon was centered at 26.2 N / 117.2 W or about 170 miles SW of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving NNE at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 50 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to move into the northern Baja Wednesday.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
Image

Re: Simon

Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2014 3:19 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Evening Update

Simon now a tropical depression

The Weather Situation
Simon has lost all convection and will continue to weaken.

Current Tropical Weather
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Tropical depression Simon was centered at 27.9 N / 116.3 W or about 75 miles west of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving NNE at about 7 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1003 mb.

Tropical Weather Forecast:
Simon is forecast to move into the northern Baja overnight tonight.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
Image