Norbert

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Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Sep 02, 2014 4:18 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Norbert is a minimal tropical storm

Norbert was classified a little earlier today. It is fighting some wind shear at this time, but has enough banding to be classified as a tropical storm. It will pass close enough to the southern Baja to produce rain squalls especially later tomorrow and Thursday.

As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Norbert was centered at 18.5 N / 106.5 W or about 150 miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving north at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. Pressure was estimated at 1004 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert is forecast to remain a tropical storm and bypass the southern Baja Thursday morning. Models have shifted northward some, so interests in the southern Baja should follow this system closely.


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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 03, 2014 6:45 am

Wednesday Morning Update

Norbert strengthens overnight

Norbert has organized and will likely become a hurricane. The extreme southern Baja and western coast surrounding Cabo Corrientes will see unsettled weather today. Norbert is far enough offshore that the worst of the effects will remain offshore today. Increasing swell will also affect the southern Baja and west central coast of Mexico.

As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 19.7 N / 108.3 W or about 245 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja, Cailfornia. It was moving WNW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 999 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert is now forecast to become a hurricane and move a little farther north. This will take is just west of the southern Baja late Thursday.


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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:52 pm

Wednesday Night Update

Norbert continues to strengthen

Norbert has slowly strengthened today. It will likely continue to strengthen through the next 1-2 days, becoming a category two or possibly 3 hurricane. As it moves farther north, it will move over cooler water and weaken after two days. Heavy rainfall of 3-5 inches will affect the southern Baja over the next few days. Increasing swell will also affect the southern Baja and west central coast of Mexico.

As of 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT Norbert was centered at 19.8 N / 109.6 W or about 215 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, Cailfornia. It was moving WNW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 986 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will move just southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Thursday. It will parallel the Baja remaining offshore during the next several days.

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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:38 am

Thursday Morning Update

Norbert south of Los Cabos

Norbert was battling easterly wind shear last night and did not strengthen significantly. It is still possible that it could reach cat 2 strength. Rain squalls are now over the extreme southern Baja with heavy rainfall of 3-5 inches likely over the next few days. The CDO or core of the strongest winds and rain may brush the SW tip of the Baja late today into tonight. Large swell will also affect the Baja the next few days.

As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 20.6 N / 110.0 W or about 160 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, Cailfornia. It was moving NW at about 6 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 80 mph. Pressure was estimated at 982 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will move just southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Thursday. It will parallel the Baja remaining offshore during the next several days.

Tropicast: Pacific IR Satellite
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Tropicast: Mexico Radar - Guasave 8:15 AM PDT
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:arrow: Keep in mind that this radar is too far from Los Cabos to "see" the rain associated with Norbert.
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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:33 pm

Thursday Night Update

Norbert southwest of Los Cabos

Norbert has strengthened a touch today and is near the top end of a cat 1 hurricane. Large swell will also affect the Baja the next few days. Satellite imagery shows that part of the core of the hurricane is brushing the Baja near Cabo San Lucas, with the eye wall remaining offshore. Tropical storm winds and heavy rainfall can be expected in the extreme southern Baja this evening into tonight.

As of 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT Norbert was centered at 20.6 N / 111.0 W or about 115 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, Cailfornia / 235 miles SSE of Cabo San Lazaro, MX. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 970 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will continue about 100 miles west of the Baja Friday through Sunday and slowly weaken. The worst of the tropical cyclone will remain offshore, although heavy rain squalls will still affect the region.

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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:52 am

Friday Morning Update

Norbert lashing the southern Baja

Satellite imagery shows the eastern part of the hurricane core has brushed the southern Baja northwest of Cabo San Lucas. Even though reports are sparse, it is likely that tropical storms winds are being felt along with heavy rain. Rainfall amounts of 5-10" are possible over the next few days. High surf will also cause dangerous surf conditions.

As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 23.0 N / 111.9 W or about 125 miles Cabo San Lucas / 130 miles SSE of Cabo San Lazaro, MX. It was moving NNW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 90 mph. Pressure was estimated at 970 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will continue about 100 miles west of the Baja today through Sunday and slowly weaken. Models are now bringing it near the southern U.S. coast near San Diego Monday. The worst of the tropical cyclone will remain offshore, although heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds will still affect the region - especially the west coast of the Baja.

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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:31 pm

Friday Night Update

Norbert stronger, just offshore

Norbert has strengthened today and IMO it is a strong cat 2 hurricane. I am estimating winds a little stronger than NHC from the pressure drop and latest satellite images. Hurricane force winds are probably being felt near Cabo San Lazaro with very heavy rainfall as the eyewall is brushing against the coast.

As of 5 PM PDT / 8 PM EDT Norbert was centered at 23.0 N / 112.6 W or about 60 miles SSW of Cabo San Lazaro, MX. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 110 MPH (NHC 100 mph). Pressure was estimated at 963 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will continue about 100 miles west of the Baja tonight through Sunday and slowly weaken. Models are now bringing it near the southern U.S. coast near San Diego Monday. NHC has Norbert never reaching the coast. The worst of the tropical cyclone will remain offshore, although heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds will still affect the region - especially the west coast of the Baja.

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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 06, 2014 8:23 am

Saturday Morning Update

Norbert a cat 3 hurricane

Synopsis
I should have stuck with with my conviction and not changed my forecast thinking. I originally believed that Norbert may reach cat 3 strength, but gave into the consensus thinking that it was going to be only a one or possibly two. Norbert rapidly intensified - a process understood well - last night. Even though satellite imagery shows that some dry air is penetrating form the northwest, it is still a strong hurricane. It may be a little shy of the official 120 mph ranking from the hurricane center.

Current
As of 5 AM PDT / 8 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 24.8 N / 113.8 W or about 95 miles west of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, 220 miles SSE of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 120 mph. Pressure was estimated at 957 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert will continue about 100 miles west of the central Baja today and about 150 miles Sunday and slowly weaken. NHC has changed their forecast some to go more inline with what we were thinking. The forecast now calls for Norbert to weaken and move inland in the northern Baja just south of San Diego Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible.
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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Sep 06, 2014 4:22 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Norbert slowly weakening

Synopsis
Satellite imagery shows that the dry air and some wind shear continues to plague the northwest side of the circulation. The eye is not as pronounced and the cloud top temperatures are warming some, indicating slow weakening. Only a few heavy showers and storms are over the Baja and Gulf of California. The heaviest rain and strongest winds have moved offshore.

Current
As of 2 PM PDT / 5 PM EDT Norbert was centered at 25.3 N / 114.8 W or about 160 miles WNW of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, 175 miles south of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving NW at about 8 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 105 mph. Pressure was estimated at 965 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert is moving farther off shore and will be about 150 miles west of the central Baja Sunday and slowly weaken. The forecast calls for Norbert move inland in the northern Baja just south of San Diego early next week.

Tropicast: Pacific Visible Satellite
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National Hurricane Center
Official NHC Advisory
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 038.shtml?
Official NHC Track
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep4.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 07, 2014 8:16 am

Sunday Morning Update

Norbert weakening rapidly

Synopsis
Colder sea surface water is taking energy away from Norbert and it is weakening rapidly. It will become a tropical storm later today. Rough surf will quiet down over the next day and only scattered thundershowers will affect the Baja.

Current
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 25.7 N / 116.4 W or about 165 miles SSW of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 75 mph. Pressure was estimated at 983 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert is weakening and will be downgraded to a tropical storm later today. It will lose tropical characteristics before moving inland over the northern Baja in a few days. High surf will remain a concern over southern California and the Baja for the next couple of days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_ep4.sh ... e#contents
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Re: Norbert

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sun Sep 07, 2014 2:38 pm

Sunday Afternoon Update

Norbert a tropical stom

Synopsis
Norbert continues to lose convection rapidly as the system is now over cooler water. This will be the last update as the system is weakening rapidly and not causing an major concerns for the Baja.

Current
As of 2 AM PDT / 5 AM EDT Norbert was centered at 26.0 N / 117.0 W or about 170 miles SW of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. It was moving WNW at about 9 mph. Top sustained winds are estimated at 60 mph. Pressure was estimated at 994 mb.

Forecast:
Norbert is weakening will lose all of its convection as it gradually turns to the northeast over the next few days. It will move toward the northern Baja as a weak low.
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