Lorenzo

Tropical cyclone archives for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
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Lorenzo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:22 am

Tuesday Morning Update

Lorenzo in the central Atlantic

Lorenzo made the transformation from a cold core system to tropical during the last 24 hours. Significant westerly wind shear is present as evidenced by the visible satellite imagery. Even through shear is present, it appears that the low center is under a large cluster of deep convection. Because of this, my estimate for sustained winds is considerably higher that the official NHC estimate.

As of 5 am ast (edt) Lorenzo was centered at 29.5 N / 53.0 W or 725 ESE of Bermuda. It was moving ENE at 8 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 55 mph (40 mph NHC 5 am edt advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1008 mb.

Forecast models take Lorenzo ENE and gradually weaken it. Lorenzo is not a threat to land.

Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite Monday morning
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Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite Tuesday Morning
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Rich Johnson
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Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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Re: Lorenzo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:16 pm

NHC increased winds to 50 mph on the 11am advisory to more closely match my previous estimate.
Rich Johnson
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Re: Lorenzo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:37 am

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Lorenzo badly sheared

Lorenzo is badly sheared today and is barely holding onto tropical storm status. It should continued to be sheared as it takes a turn to the northeast during the next 1-2 days.

As of 11 am ast (edt) Lorenzo was centered at 29.5 N / 49.0 W or 955 east of Bermuda. It was moving east at 6 mph. Top sustained winds estimated at 40 mph (45 mph 11 am edt advisory). Pressure was estimated at 1006 mb.

Forecast models take Lorenzo ENE and gradually weaken it. Lorenzo is not a threat to land.


Tropicast: Visible Floater Satellite
Image
Rich Johnson
Twitter: https://twitter.com/richjohnsonwx
Certified Broadcast Meteorologist - Hurricane Expert

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