NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

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NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by Florida Beach Gal » Thu May 27, 2010 10:31 am

I just saw this on foxnews....

:megaphone:
NOAA predicts as many as 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, with 3 to 7 becoming serious enough to be classified as major hurricanes. The agency worries that as many as 14 could turn into hurricanes.


The long term average is 10 named storms and 6 hurricanes with about 2.5 major hurricanes. The reasoning was due to the possible development of La Nina.

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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by CoralReef62 » Fri May 28, 2010 3:19 pm

I just saw the video on the Palm Beach Post. The women's name is Jane Lubchenco, she's a NOAA Administrator. She pretty much said it was going to be a bad season. I also hear that the NOAA Administration is calling for a repeat of 2005. :pc:
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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by Florida Beach Gal » Sun May 30, 2010 7:55 am

CoralReef62 wrote:I just saw the video on the Palm Beach Post. The women's name is Jane Lubchenco, she's a NOAA Administrator. She pretty much said it was going to be a bad season. I also hear that the NOAA Administration is calling for a repeat of 2005. :pc:

I'm hoping that NOAA is wrong or at least at the bottom end of their estimate.

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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by Kit Kat » Sun May 30, 2010 12:30 pm

They could be right and still not have any make landfall.

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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by CoralReef62 » Sun May 30, 2010 11:42 pm

That would be a miracle, not to have any landfalls and still have that many tropical storms to form. I just hope, people are prepared and ready to evacuate if they are ordered to leave. Makes me glad, I live more inland than on the coastline or any flood zone. :fish:
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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Mon May 31, 2010 8:29 am

CoralReef62 wrote:That would be a miracle, not to have any landfalls and still have that many tropical storms to form. I just hope, people are prepared and ready to evacuate if they are ordered to leave. Makes me glad, I live more inland than on the coastline or any flood zone. :fish:

I would say you would be right in that case. If there are that many, hopefully the stronger ones will be "fish storms".
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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by CoralReef62 » Mon May 31, 2010 8:52 pm

I would say you would be right in that case. If there are that many, hopefully the stronger ones will be "fish storms".

Hopefully would be the key word in this case. Looks to be a busy season. :fish:
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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:17 am

El nino has a much greater effect supressing hurricane formation then does La Nina enhancing hurricane formation. Let's hope that the case again!
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Re: NOAA hurricane outlook for 2010

Post by CoralReef62 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 11:28 am

This is what NOAA had to say about this season:

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

•Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.
•Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.
•High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.


According to this, ElNino has dissipated. So it looks like a busy season is ahead of us. Look out folks their she blows. :pc:
* Note anything I post here is just my opinion and not a forecast. I love talking about the weather and meeting people who share the same interests.

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