Early 2010 hurricane season outlook

[Caribbean Traveler]

Even though we at Tropicalweather.net don't get into long term hurricane predictions, the public is still quite interested in how the hurricane season may shape up. Colorado State University's Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Phil Klotzbach have put out an early prediction of 11-16 named storms of which 6-10 may become hurricanes and of those, 5 may become a major hurricane.

Just to get our bearings, in a "typical" hurricane season the long term average suggests 10 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes and of those about 2-3 becoming major.

Remember, it's possible to have an active hurricane season and not have any landfalls in the U.S. The odds do go up as the number of hurricanes increase though. Dr. Peter Ray from my Alma Mater Florida State University is looking for a similar more quite year. El nino coupled with a lack of a warm pool is his reasoning.

[nennie0]

How many times do those forecasters get to revise what they say? It seems like to me that every other month someone is saying how bad the hurricane season is going to be.

[Florida Beach Gal]

How many times do those forecasters get to revise what they say? It seems like to me that every other month someone is saying how bad the hurricane season is going to be.

Yes, they do revise their outlooks. I believe that the December forecast is simply a preliminary hurricane season forecast. IMHO the most important one is the forecast that comes out just before hurricane season starts.

[Mike-LINY]

The waters have been relatively warm in the Caribbean this winter.. Anyone agree with that ?

-Mike

[Kitty]

The waters have been relatively warm in the Caribbean this winter.. Anyone agree with that ?

-Mike

Isn't the water always warm in the Caribbean?