Olaf

Tropicial cyclone archives of the 2009 eastern and central Pacific hurricane season
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Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Wed Sep 30, 2009 8:19 pm

Wednesday Evening Update

New tropical depression forming southwest of Cabo San Lucas

After several days of trying to organize, a tropical disturbance is on the verge of becoming a depression. Quickscat shows a closed circulation and deep convection is associated with the low. With this being the case the tropical disturbance is probably a tropical depression now. It is not in very good shape. The surface low is centered southwest of the mid level rotation. There is still a window of opportunity for it to develop some before cooler water and upper air conditions are not as favorable for development.

As of 9:00 pm edt / 6:00 pm pdt the tropical disturbance was centered near 19.5° N / 116.5° W or about 475 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Top sustained winds are estimated at 30 mph. It is moving west northwest about 5-10 mph.


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Re: new tropical depresison forming southwest of Cabo

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Oct 01, 2009 6:09 am

Thursday Morning Update

Tropical disturbance slightly more organized

It appears that the mid level low and low level circulation are redeveloping in nearly the same location as estimated earlier. Last night's mid level center has moved northeast and has weakened. A new burst of convection is organizing near where the surface low appears to be. Quickscat shows a nice low level circulation now with winds estimated at 30-35 knots, so we'll up the winds to 35 mph. With the new burst of convection NHC may finally classifly this one at 8 am pdt despite downgrading to "moderate" earlier this morning.

As of 7:00 am edt / 4:00 am pdt the tropical disturbance was centered near 19.5° N / 116.5° W or about 475 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph. It is moving west northwest about 5-10 mph.


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Re: Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Thu Oct 01, 2009 4:15 pm

Thursday Evening Update

Fifteenth named storm of the eastern Pacific season....

NHC reversed their trend and named Olaf at 2 pm edt. Even though Olaf is struggling to organize, it has enough support to be named a minimal tropical storm. It is moving over cooler water so will not have long before starting to weaken. Some showers are possilbe over the Baja as some of the outer bands swing by.

As of 5:00 am edt / 2:00 am pdt tropicall storm Olaf was centered near 19.4° N / 117.8° W or about 565 miles westsouthwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph. It is moving west northwest about 6 mph.


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Re: Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Oct 02, 2009 5:57 am

Friday Morning Update

Olaf strengthens some, turns north

Last night tropical storm Olaf turned north and increased in forward speed. A large burst of deep convection continues to the north and east of the surface low. Over the past couple of hours convection has started to weaken, so Olaf probably maxed out in intensity a few hours ago at about 50-55 mph. Clouds with scattered showers and storms will move into the central Baja today.

As of 7:00 am edt / 5:00 am pdt tropical storm Olaf was centered near 22.6° N / 117.5° W or about 360 miles west southwest of Cabo Lazaro, Mexico. Top sustained winds are estimated at 45 mph (NHC 45 mph). It is moving north at about 12 mph.


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Re: Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Fri Oct 02, 2009 6:52 pm

Friday Evening Update

Olaf turns northeast, starts to weaken

Tropical storm Olaf has started to make its northeast turn over the past few hours. The deep convection has been weakening and Olaf will decrease below tropical storm strength shortly. Rain is pushing into the central Baja and will produce 1-4" which could cause localized flooding.

As of 7:00 pm edt / 4:00 pm pdt tropical storm Olaf was centered near 24.4° N / 116.7° W or about 275 miles west of Cabo Lazaro, Mexico. Top sustained winds are estimated at 40 mph (NHC 40 mph). It is moving northeast at about 10 mph.


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Re: Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Oct 03, 2009 7:18 am

Saturday Morning Update

Olaf still has tropical storm effects

After weakening to probably just under tropical storm strength several hours ago, it "looks like" Olaf is once again a minimal tropical storm as the mid level center prepares to cross land later today between Punta Engenia and Cabo Lazaro. Deep convection has again built near the center of a strong mid level circulation. The surface low is dying well to the west of the convection. Heavy rain of 1-4" is possible with the thunderstorm cluster near the center of the mid level low.

As of 8:00 am edt / 5:00 am pdt Olaf's mid level center was centered near 25.2° N / 113.2° W or about 50-75 miles west of the coast between Cabo Lazaro and Punta Engenia, Mexico. The weak surface low was centered near 24° N / 117° W or about 300 miles west of Cabo Lazaro. Top sustained winds are estimated at 35 mph (NHC 35 mph) with stronger gusts near the storms. It is moving north northeast at about 3 mph and the mid level center is moving northeast.


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Re: Olaf

Post by Caribbean Traveler » Sat Oct 03, 2009 1:24 pm

Saturday Afternoon Update

Olaf's effects over Gulf of California

The mid level circulation of Olaf is now over the Gulf of California. Heavy rain is moving from the central Baja over the Gulf of California into northwest Mexico. Several inches of rain is possible with flash flooding. The actual weak surface low is now roughly 100 miles west of Cabe Lazaro moving just south of due east at about 10-15 mph. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible with the thundershowers.

This will be the last update on Olaf.

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