March 2/3 snow?

[Caribbean Traveler]

here we go again....

[Caribbean Traveler]

This storm is still holding steady.....

[Martin]

Models have been consistent with this one

[Caribbean Traveler]

Models have been consistent with this one

Right on!

[Caribbean Traveler]

The 12z run of the gfs has shyed away from the southern snow. The Euro has a sizeable snowstorm still for Tuesday. Ususally the Euro is the better model for this scenario....I hope so this time too!

[Martin]

GO EURO!

[Caribbean Traveler]

The Euro still has a path across north Florida, which usually is a perfect storm track for the interior Southeast to get big snow. The GFS is taking the low across south Florida.

This is a summary of this season: Big snow predicted for Atlanta 7-14 days out. Reality - 1. low weakens to nothing. 2. dry air moves in. 3. low dives to south Florida.

The dominate low track that has brought a ton of snow to the mid-atlantic has steered cold air across north Georgia this winter. It has taken the storm track too far south!

[Caribbean Traveler]

The GFS and Euro are both coming in line for a snow across the southeast for the interior. This is more a classic setup where the snow should be farther inland.

[Caribbean Traveler]

This will be a nice little storm across the south with a 1-3" band from near Atlanta - Charlotte - Raleigh - Norfolk. Interior North Carolina has the potential to see considerably more snow, but it will be falling during the middle of the day in Charlotte....temps will probably be near or a little above freezing with this one.

tuesday_march_2_2010_18z.gif (59.37 KiB) Viewed 5321 times

[Caribbean Traveler]

18z gfs model run still has a sizable snow for parts of the south. Right now a 2-4" may set up near / just north of Atlanta - north of Columbia - near Raleigh. This will be a very close case with the boundary layer probably just could enough for wet snow. If it is all snow, there is potential for a 3-6" bullseye somewhere from north Georgia to central North Carolina.

[Caribbean Traveler]

This is the storm that we've been waiting for all winter in north Georgia! The problem is now that is will be March, it is warmer. It's very possible that the storm will start as rain or even end as rain with the temperatures in the mid or even upper 30's over north Georgia. If it was all snow, this would have beeen a 4-8" snowstorm! Right now with the ground being warm, the precipitation falling partly as rain and occuring during the daylight hours should cut the amounts down.

The zone of snow still looks to be from near or north of Atlanta to inbetween Greenville-Spartanburg and Columbia to Charlotte to near Raleigh. This is a very border line case. It a location gets all snow, it should be very wet. Right now, it's best to be conservative and still go with a zone 1-3" with some heavier amounts. Too many things can still go wrong!

[Martin]

Exact same feelings here in Va

[Caribbean Traveler]

Exact same feelings here in Va

The NWS folks here are totally conservative at this point going for rain/ snow changing to rain. The mos numbers indicate that it will be about 3-4 degrees warmer on the south side of Atlanta. It's very possibe that south of Atlanta could see only a little snow with a solid heavy band in the northern suburbs. I'm hoping it works out like that anyway!

[Martin]

With the models flip flopping all around with bringing the system east or west its hard to tell how much snow we might see. NAM is promising. Keeping my fingers crossed for ATL :)

[Florida Beach Gal]

This will be close here in eastern North Carolina. It will probably be mostly rain, but may end as some heavy snow. Norfolk probably has the same chances as us.