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Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 11:11 am
Friday Midday Update
The region of showers and storms to the south of Zihuantanejo appears to be better organized today and close to depression status. It is moving westward away from land.
Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 4:22 pm
Friday Evening Update
Showers and storms continue about 100-200 miles south of Manzanillo. The visible satellite shows a distinct low level swirl, but not in a tight pattern yet. Heavy showers have retreated to the west of the center. This system looks to be a little below depression status. Tropical development is still possible and this unsettled region needs to be watched.
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:56 pm
Saturday Afternoon Update
Not much change. The disturbance was on the verge of becoming a depression this morning, now deep convection is once again being pushed away from the center. The low level circulation appears to be more organized today. There is still potential for tropical development in the next 1-2 days.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 12:35 am
Sunday Early AM Update
Things have changed. It looks like we have a depression now and are a bit surprized that NHC didn't classify this one shortly ago. The center appears to be near 14.5N/108.5W or about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo. There is deep convection on the west side with banding taking shape. It's possible that NHC may need to jump straight to tropical storm strength with this one!
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:03 am
Sunday Midday Update
There has been little change since last night. Deep convection is still on the western half of the circulation. It appears to be centered near 15N/108.8W or about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Overnight it has drifted a little north of northwest. It is still our premise that this is a depression that may be close to t.s. strength.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 4:30 pm
Sunday Evening Update
No change since midday update. It looks like the center is about 410 miles southwest of Manzanillo. It appears that the main center is still under the eastern convective burst. NHC did not upgrade this to a depression stating that the low level circulation is still disorganized. It looks like a vorticity has spun around the main low center to the east. That vorticity does look disorganized. It will also be interesting to see what, if any, effect the growing disturbance south of Acapulco has on the disturbance. Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening.
Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 11:56 pm
Monday Early AM Update
NHC has finally upgraded for reasons that we discussed earlier. They make it a storm by the morning. Welcome aboard!
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 10:13 am
Monday Midday Update
Ok, again were not sure what NHC is up to. They are right stating that the center is exposed. It is barely off to the east of the convection. They are also correct in stating that it did not move much overnight. It appears to have just wobbled overnight. The center in near 15N/109W or about 415 miles southwest of Manzanillo. The convection is very deep west of the center. Two other agencies that NHC works with has given this a Dvorak classification of a tropical storm. Surely tropical storm force winds are under the monster storms to the west. Look for the system to drift northwest over the next few days.
Posted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 6:34 pm
Monday Evening Update
T.D. 15 may have missed the bus. Easterly wind shear has pushed the convection farther west from the center. This most certainly was a t.s. early today as we agreed with the Dvorak estimate from a couple of other agencies. Now with the center stripped of convection for the present time, it should not be upgraded since it has weakened over the past six hours. The center is drifting and is near 14.5N/108.8W or about 430 miles southwest of Manzanillo.
Posted: Tue Oct 16, 2007 5:43 pm
Tuesday Evening Update
NHC upgraded t.d. 15 to T.S. Kiko earlier today, then dowgraded back to t.d. The wind shear is going through phases where it strengthens and weakens. The convection from this morning was totally blown away completely exposing the low level center. Over the past two or three hours the winds have relaxed and a huge burst of convection is near the center again. It probably is back up to minimal t.s. strength again. Kiko is just wobbling. In fact it has drifted southwest a few miles. It is centered at 13.7N/108.3W or about 750 miles southwest of Manzanillo and 650 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Kiko will continue to sit and spin for awhile then generally drift north for the next few days.
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:39 am
Wednesday Morning Update
NHC upgraded t.d. 15 to T.S. Kiko again. Kiko the yo-yo. it looks like Kiko may actually stay as tropical storm for awhile this time. I.R. satellite imagery makes it tough to see the exact center, but it is apparent that it has moved little since last night. It is also under a plume of very deep concection, so the wind shear has died down. Kiko will probably be strengthened into solid tropical storm instead of a minimal one on the last advisory. Top sustained winds are probably closer to 50 or 55 mph now. It will start its drift north soon.
Posted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:38 pm
Wednesday Evening Update
Kiko is centered near 15N/105W or about 300 miles south of Manzanillo. After moving northeast today, it has now started to move more north paralleling the coast. Just as before, convection comes and goes with the heaviest to the west of the center. Kiko may get fairly close to the coast in the next couple of days so tropical storms watches may be need along the Mexican coast from near Manzanillo to Puerta Vallerta.
Posted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:05 pm
Thursday Afternoon Update
Kiki is centered near 16.5N/103.5W or about 125 miles southwest of Zihuantanejo. Is now is drifting northward very slowly. The heaviest convection is west of the center although some showers are east toward the coast. Convection has disappered from the center somewhat after showing signs that it might try to build for a while. Upper air winds have relaxed some. This will allow for strengthening. NHC has drmatically changed their intensity forecast and make KIKO a 80 kt hurricane in a few days. Yes, this is possible, but the models are in disarray, so we choose to be a little more cautious.
Tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the west Mexico coast. Vacationers need to watch for building surf and rip currents especially from Acapulco northward to Cabo Corrientes.
Interests in the southern Baja need to watch the track and intensity of Kiko carefully. It is possible that Kiko may have impacts early next week near Cabo.
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:12 am
Friday Morning Update
Kiko has reformed farther west since the last update. It is also gaining strength. It is centered near 16.5N/104.5W or about 175 miles south of Manzanillo. It has moved farther from land and the high pressure center aloft is building over the tropical storm. Additional strengthening is likely and it is possible that Kiko could make hurricane strength as it finally starts the north or northwest drift over the next couple of days. Still keep an eye on the progress in the southern Baja. Models mostly want to take Kiko northwest of the Baja. Surf will continue to build and rain will be locally heavy on the coast from near Zihuantanejo to Cabo Corrientes.
Posted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:28 pm
Friday Evening Update
Kiko is slowly getting better organized. The wind shear has disappeared and this is allowing for the convection to build around the center. Kiko is centered near 17.5N/107.5N or about 135 miles southwest of Manzanillo and 475 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas. Kiko will likely stay on this general course for the next couple of days and gradually strengthen. Interests on the southern Baja and western Mexican coast from Cabo Corrientes south to Zihuatanejo can expect building surf. The showers and storms will be likely on the western Mexico coast.