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Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:34 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Morning Update

Kiko is on its way to forming an eye wall. Just after NHC mentioned that Kiko did not look very organized on the 8pm pdt advisory it took off. Over the past several hours convection is wrapping all the way around the center of circulation. If this keeps up it could reach minimal hurricane strength later Saturday. That's what we'll be closely watching for. The forecast has not changed since last time. Keep your eyes open in the southern Baja.

Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 10:36 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Midday Update

Kiko is on its way to becoming a hurricane. NHC on the last advisory agreed with our early morning assessment and now have Kiko up to 65 mph with it becoming a hurricane later today. There is a solid ball of convection around the center and the structure looks its most organized so far. It is on its northwest journey now. No change on the forecast. Still keep a close eye on Kiko in the southern Baja.

Posted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:03 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday late Afternoon Update
Kiko continues to hold its own. Convection quieted for a few hours, now a new burst is over the center. It appears to still be below hurricane strength by just a bit. Some of the heavier rainbands are close to the west coast near Cabo Corrientes. The forecast models are now mostly saying that Kiko will northwest and move to the southwest of Cabo in a few days.

Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 8:19 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Morning Update
Kiko is still just below hurricane strength. That may be changing though. The latest I.R. satellite seems to show southwesterly shear. It is tough to tell without the visible if this is the case for if the center is taking a jog more northward than expected. Right now we're going with the shear scenario. If this is the case, this will most likely end Kiko's bit to become a hurricane. No doubt, the trough to the north is causing this to happen. As the trough lifts away will if have time to strengthen more as it moves northwest toward cooler water. Probably not.

Kiko is center near 19.4/107.4 or about 300 miles south-south-east of Cabo. We'll updated a bit later when the vis is in.

Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 1:05 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Afternoon Update
The visible satellite is in. Southwesterly shear has weakened Kiko. NHC dropped the top winds to 60 mph.

Posted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 6:57 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Evening Update
Kiko continues to weaken. The visible satellite imagery shows that southwesterly winds have continued to shear Kiko. Deep convection remains on the northwest side of the storm with occasional burts near the center. The forecast models take Kiko on a west northwesterly course and in a couple of days over cooler water. Showers are possible over the southern Baja by tomorrow as Kiko passes to the south of Cabo.

Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:56 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Midday Update
The visible satellite images are coming in and they are showing that Kiko continues to weaken. The deep convection is history. A very strong high over the western U.S. seems to have built southward effecting Kiko. As mentioned earlier, Kiko will miss the Baja with only clouds and some showers moving through the region. Top sustained winds are at 45 mph by NHC which may be a bit generous. Expect Kiko to move west northwest or west over cooler water and become a depression in the next 24 hours roughly.

Posted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:13 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Night Update
Kiko was downgraded to a depression earlier today by NHC. That was premature. It may have become a depression briefly as all convection disappeared for a short while. Now Kiko has had another very impressive flare-up of convection over its center and northeast quadrant. The center is near 19.5N/111W or about 235 south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. It is moving west and is not a threat to the Baja. It may try to hold on a bit longer before truly becoming a depression.

Posted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:08 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Midday Update
There still remains a core of convection near the center of Kiko as it moves westward. The cluster is smaller than last night so Kiko has indeed dropped down to depression status. Kiko is now about 400 miles southwest of Cabo. It is no threat to land and will be moving over colder water, robbing its energy. This will be our last update on Kiko.