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Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 8:46 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Night Update

Per our tropical summaries, tropical depresion 12E has finally been named. It has shown organization for at least 24 hours now.

It is centered near 14N / 109W or about 625 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. It's appearance on satellite imagery show a well defined circulation with convection near the core. No doubt it has reached tropical storm strength. Banding is taking place all quads except for the southeast side.

A more northwesterly motion is apparent. It is already getting pulled by the approaching trough to the northwest. Interests toward Cabo should keep an eye on the situation. It is likely to weaken before approaching the area in a few days as the system moves over colder water.

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:44 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early AM Update

12E was finally ungraded to tropical storm IVO in the last advisory from NHC. The satellite presentation shows a busrt of deep convection center the center. IVO is strengthening. It is possible to make hurricane strength in the next day or two. It will eventually weaken again as it moves over cooler water. IVO is moving northwest will turn back toward the Baja ahead of a strong upper air trough. Keep an eye on IVO in Baja California.

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:36 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Midday Update

Satellite Imagery indicates that Ivo has developed significantly over the past several hours. It now has a well developed CDO (central dense overcast) or heavy cloud structure near the center. It is well on its way to becoming a hurricane. Ivo is centered near 14.5N / 111W or about 590 miles south of Cabo San Lucas.

The motion to the northwest has stopped. It appears that the trough to the west is already influencing it. This may allow for the turn more northeast to start earlier. This would allow a more southerly course, which in turn would keep it over warmer water. If this is indeed the case, Ivo may not weaken as much as it approaches the southern Baja.

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:54 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Evening Update

Ivo continues to strengthen. Satellite shows good outflow aloft and we agree with NHC that this will become a hurricane soon. An upper air trough should take Ivo near the southern Baja by the end of the weekend. Interests near Cabo should follow Ivo closely. Intensity will be determined by the exact track. If it moves slightly more north it should lose strength over cooler water, and probably stronger shear.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:33 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Early AM Update

Ivo was upgraded to hurricane strength the last advisory. The CDO is increasing and cloud tops cooling. The trend toward strengthening continues for now.

No change to previous forcast thinking. The track toward the southern Baja by the end of the weekend still looks plausible.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:01 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Late AM Update

Ivo has not changed very much since last night. If anything, the convection has decreased just a touch, so the intensity has not changed much either. The upper cloud structure has pointed more to southern Baja which usually the way of motion. The track still takes the low near southern Baja by the end of the weekend as a t.s.. It is not out of the question if it stays farther south to remain a hurricane.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:07 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Late AM Update

:!: is sorry about the delay in updates. We had a
server issue which now has been corrected.

Ivo is retaining minimal hurricane strength. Occasional bursts of heavy convection continue are a period of cloud top warming a few hours ago.

There is little change in the forecast thinking. It is apparent that Ivo is feeling the upper trough to the north and is pulling the clouds toward the southern Baja. This is where Ivo should make landfall late Sunday probably as a tropical storm.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 6:37 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Late Morning Update

As of 11:30 am eastern Ivo looks to have lost a little strength. Last nights brief resurgance of convection has waned. It actually appears to be a little under hurricane strength now. We suspect that the upper trough is weakening Ivo and it probably will be taken down from hurricane strength in the next NHC advisory.

Ivo also looks to be moving a little more east. The most likely area to be affected would be the southern Baja.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:15 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Evening Update

NHC concurs with our previous assessment and has dropped Ivo to tropical storm strength. The visible satellite imagery shows that the trough is taking its toll on Ivo and is shearing it on the west side. Look for further weakening as it approaches the southern Baja late this weekend. It's not out of the question that Ivo could be a depression as it makes landfall.

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:54 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Early AM Update

The latest satellite imagery shows the continued weakening trend in Ivo. The heavy convection is disappearing. It is likely that Ivo will make landfall in the southern Baja as a tropical depression late Sunday or Monday.

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:31 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Afternoon Update

Ivo's convection has made a comeback over the past several hours, but seems to have leveled off. Wind shear is still affecting the west side of the circulation. With that being said, Ivo is holding onto heavy showers and storms near the circulation center and east. The strength probably has come up a bit and NHC's 60 mph estimate seems good. Still look for a weakening trend again as it slowly moves toward southern Baja. If the convection holds on long enough, heavy rain will be a threat.

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:21 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Night Update

Ivo's expected weakening trend has occured and the forecast track and strength going as expected. Ivo will make landfall Sunday evening most likely just a tropical depression or possibly a minimal tropical storm. Locally heavy showers are possible on the southern Baja with 1" or more.

Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 8:24 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Morning Update

Ivo is still beng sheared an is a tropical depression. The center of circulation is void of any deep convection and all of the heavy showers are preceding it on the northeast side. Expect the worst of the system today and as landfall occurs this evening, most of the heavy showers should be moving east.

Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2007 7:27 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Evening Update

Ivo has lost most of its convection except for a few remaining showers over the southen Baja. The weak low center may pass just south of the peninsula. Unless restrengthening occurs over the Gulf of California, which we do not expect, this will be the last update on Ivo.