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Posted: Thu Aug 30, 2007 5:40 pm
Thursday PM Update
The disturbance south of Mexcio is now a depression. It is likely to intensify as it moves along the Mexican coast. Interests along the west coast of Mexico and Cabo San Lucas should monitor this system. This system will likely become tropical storm Henriette within the next 12 hours.
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 1:49 am
11E will likely be a tropical storm soon. It will bring heavy rain to the coast and rough seas. Its strengthening will depend on how close it is to the coast. If it gets too close the circulation will be disrupted and this will inhibit strengthening
Posted: Fri Aug 31, 2007 9:39 am
Friday late AM
Henriette upgraded to ts at 5 am. It is interacting with the coast which will keep its strenght down until it pulls away. Main threat is flooding rains on coast with rough seas. System will likely become hurricane so interests north toward Cabo San Lucas should keep an eye on Henriette. It will be in the general vicinity of the Baja by late in the weekend.
Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 1:34 am
Henriette remains sluggish near the west coast of Mexico. The main threat continues to be heavy rainfall and the risk of mudslides. Heavy rain is pounding the coast from Puerta Vallerta to Manzanillo. Cloud tops are cooling and it looks like Henriette is trying to organize a bit. Continue to watch the progress up to the Baja.
Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 10:20 am
Late Saturday AM
The heaviest rain with Henriette is moving off the coast. Quickscat has had a lot of trouble showing a low level circulation. Henriette may have been more disorganized than originally thought - though still producing tremendous downpours.
Satellite shows complex of thunderstorms now moving farther out to sea which is good news for the west coast and Cabo. At the same time, Henriette may actually get better organized and become a hurricane.
Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 3:15 pm
Late Saturday Afternoon
Quickscat still does not show a well organized low level circulation. The latest visible looks as though Henriette is definitely trying to organize. It's possible that the low level circulation hasn't been well established as of yet. Heaviest rain remains offshore. With the circulation a little offshore the NHC track looks reasonable taking the system west of the Baja. The models have had a disparity in deciding how strong the weakness in the ridge to the north is.
The main impact will still be heavy rain with scattered storms on the coast and high surf.
Posted: Sat Sep 01, 2007 11:36 pm
It finally looks like Henriette is organizing an eye wall. The center is about 125 miles w-sw of Manzanillo. A burst of heavy rain recently hit Puerta Vallerta.
Models are differing a bit on the track. A couple of the better ones now are taking Henriette near the Gulf of California. It happens to be that they are the strays. Never the less, we need to watch the track closely northward toward Cabo. We'll soon know if the stray models picked up bad data or that they have actually have picked up on something.
Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 7:30 am
Sunday AM update
Henriette has contuined to slowly organized overnight and seems a little father out to sea. Heavy thundershowers are scattered on the coast. The forecast still stands taking the system a little out to sea then up to the mid Baja as a weaker tropical cyclone.
Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 4:12 pm
Sunday Evening Update
Henriette is a very compact system. The heaviest rain is with the center offshore. No doubt heavy rain also is falling in the rugged land areas too.
Main change is with the models. As suggested yesterday, the models that we consider better were the outliers. It seems like the rest of the forecast models are joining the gang. This means that the track has been adjusted eastward toward Cabo by Tuesday. Keep an eye on the track and be prepared in the southern Baja.
Posted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 11:10 pm
Monday Early AM Update
Hurricane watches have been posted for the southern Baja. All interests near Cabo should continue to follow the latest on Henriette.
The northern part of the circulation center appears to have entrained a bit of dry air. Banding is most impressive on the southern flank. Henriette is still taking its time to get organized. Heavy rains and rough surf pose the biggest issues.
Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:53 am
Monday Late AM Update
The Henriette satellite presentation looked pretty ragged overnight. Over the past few hours, clouds tops have started to cool over the center. It is still a tropical storm and still trying to organize. As stated before, keep an eye on this one in Cabo.
Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:50 pm
Monday afternoon update...
After struggling to organize, Henriette is now doing so. It is likely to be a hurricane by this evening and will come near Cabo San Lucas Tuesday morning. Preparation for Henriette should be completed by this evening.
Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:13 pm
Monday Evening Update
Henriette's structure is looking more organized than earlier today. It should become a hurricane tonight as stated earlier. Cabo San Lucas should see rain pick up tonight with squally weather by Tuesday morning. It looks like Henriette will be a minimal hurricane when in the vicinity of Cabo. Plan wisely and complete preparations by this evening.
Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 1:44 am
Tuesday AM Update
The official track is still on the west coast of the Baja....
OK, the models that were our most trusted but were the "outliers" from a few days ago are now looking good. It is possible that Henriette is going to pass on the east side of Cabo San Lucas and into the Gulf of California.
Henriette has been a strong tropical storm for awhile now. It looks like the eyewall is shaping up, so I think NHC may finally upgrade at the 2 am pdt advisory.
The strongest part of Henriette is the south and east flank. If this continues, Cabo may get only a glancing blow with the worst weather on the other side of the Gulf. With the track trending toward the Gulf, this will allow Henriette to stay over water longer and take longer to weaken.
Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:24 am
Tuesday Midday Update
As expected from the earlier discussion, Henriette has nudged just a bit farther east and will likely clip the eastern tip of the Baja as it moves into the Gulf of California. Strengthening has occured and top winds are 85 mph. The worst of the weather will be east of Cabo, but squalls are still likely since the eyewall will be over land in the next few hours.
Rain and storms have commenced over the southern Baja. At this time, Henriette is slightly lopsided with the heaviest weather on the southeast side of the hurricane. The worst weather will be experienced on the Mexican west coast near Coliacan. By Thursday, heavy showers will move into the U.S. desert southwest. With the tropical nature of the moisture, flash flooding will be possible.