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Posted: Sun Dec 09, 2007 10:22 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Late Sunday Evening Update

Showers and storms have organized northeast of the Leewards....

It appears that a low level circulation is now forming northeast of the Leewards. Quickscat satellite shows a very sharp wave, which may be a surface low forming. Most of the convection remains on the north and northeast side of the circulation. An upper air low near Puerto Rico fans diffluent winds over the system farther east.

There is the potential for a tropical or subtropical storm to form in the next 24 hours if convection can remain near the surface low.

Posted: Mon Dec 10, 2007 7:52 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Evening Update

Showers and storms have increased....

Convection has increased with the low near Puerto Rico. It is being caused by the upper low, but a surface low may be generating under it. At this time, as usual, Quickscat satellite imagery is blocked out over the region. This would greatly help in ascertaining the strength of the surface low. The latest radar imagery indicates a circulation northeast of Puerto Rico bringing very heavy rain. It is possible that this will be named a tropical or subtropical storm. The forecast calls for the low to move west over Puerto Rico then near Jamaica finally ending up near Belize by Saturday. Heavy rainfall can be expected in the path of this system if it is named or not. Recon is expected to visit tomorrow afternoon.

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 2:24 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Early AM Update

Olga trying to gain tropical characteristics....

Subtropical storm Olga is now showing banding and convection near the center of circulation which is just north of Puerto Rico. It appears that this is a transformation into a tropical system. Heavy rain will be the main threat as is moves into the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Due to the rugged mountains on Hispaniola, the circulation will be severely damaged. Some assemblance of a low pressure area may continue westward past Jamaica then to near Belize by the weekend.

Posted: Tue Dec 11, 2007 1:57 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday afternoon Update

Olga making landfall in the Dominican Republic....

The convection near the center has backed off since last night. Top sustained winds continue near 45 mph. Olga remains a heavy rain threat. Rainfall totals will range from 5-10 inches over the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. NHC has now extended its track westward to bring Olga near Belize by early Saturday- very similar to what we said yesterday.

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 2:30 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early AM Update

Olga is over Hispaniola......

Olga was reclassified as tropical by NHC last evening. It doesn't look much different on the satelite imagery with convection near the center and also spread well from the center. Good outflow is still noted on the northern semicircle. We should know by tomorrow if the system will survive. The mountains of the Dominican Republic and Haiti have greatly weakened or destroyed many tropical cyclones in the past. The heavy rain threat will spread farther east and may include Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. The forecast of the weakened low is still in the general direction of Belize. A few models recurve the remnant low northeast toward Florida.

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 11:07 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Midday Update

Olga is weakening......

Olga is really not a tropical storm at this point. NHC is holding onto TS status because of winds near 40 mph in a few storms near the Turks and Caicos. The center of circulation is halfway between southern Cuba and northeast of Jamaica. There is no convection near the center of circulation. Heavy rain still continue over mostly the Dominican Republic. The models have shifted northward and now indicate the low moving to the Yucatan. It may even be pulled northward up through the Yucatan Channel ahead of the next cold front approaching the southeast U.S. If it does go through the channel, it should merge quickly with the front.

Posted: Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:19 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Early AM Update

Olga downgraded......

NHC has written its last advisory.

The center of circulation of Olga is now northwest of Jamaica. We will continue to watch for any redevelopment - which is not anticipated at this time. This will be the last outlook unless significant redevelopment takes place.