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Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 9:06 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Late Morning Update

Is Noel going to become a hurricane :?:

The first couple of visible satellite images are now in. The center of Noel is barely offshore of Cuba. This proximity to land is inhibiting the development near the circulation center. It also appears to have slowed down its forward motion a touch. Deep convection is expanding and now covers the southern and central Bahamas.

Today we will focus on the forward motion to see if the apparent slowing down is a precursor to its turn more to the north. NHC is also making Noel a minimal hurricane near Andros before the upper-air winds take their toll on its structure. It is possible that it will become a hurricane if the center moves away from Cuba soon and it has a large enough window before the shearing winds get to it.

The latest computer storm tracks actually take Noel into Cuba then reemerge it into the Bahamas with a larger spread - from near Andros now east toward the central Bahamas. If the possible slowing trend has occurred, the "to the east of Andros" scenario may play out and the models taking Noel significantly into Cuba would be incorrect.

Still expect very heavy rain over the Bahamas into Hispaniola. Now up to 30" may fall in the D.R.. There is a brick wall of dry air over south Florida still which is keeping most of the moisture east. High waves and beach erosion are still likely in the Bahamas. Strong rip currents and beach erosion for the Florida beaches northward to the Carolina's.

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:45 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Late Afternoon Update

Noel continues inland today....

Visible satellite imagery shows Noel well inland over Cuba. It appears that the low level center and mid level are disjointed. The surface low is near Camaguey and mid-level center is about 50-75 miles northeast near the north coast of Cuba. A disjointed system like this as well as the center being over land is good news. Noel will not strengthen as long as it is over land. Noel's shot at strengthening will wait until it moves back over the water. There is still a strong pressure gradient and winds are gusty 25-35 over eastern Florida and stronger in the Bahamas. The central Bahamas are still getting very heavy showers.

The models were right in moving Noel into Cuba. They keep it in Cuba for about another 12-24 hours and NHC reflects this. It is possible that the surface low may brush the south coast of Cuba over the next 6 hours. Most models still insist on recurving Noel over Andros Island and across the northern Bahamas as it is picked up by a front.

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:56 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early AM Update

The perils of the night shift... :roll:

After studying Cuba radar, it appears that Noel is on the north coast of Cuba northwest of Camguey. The visible satellite would greatly help in seeing the low level structure. It appears that the upper air winds are keeping the convection from wrapping west of the center of circulation. What we have is a very lop sided system. The heavy rain is on the eastern semi-circle. The convection is really exploding again. It is pouring over parts of eastern Cuba northward into the central Bahamas. At least the rain is slowing in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Rainfall probably exceeded 25" in the Dominican Republic where there is serious flooding and at least 22 deaths.

Noel is going to have a limited time to strengthen. It has been fighting wind shear and will soon be picked up by the upper trough. It will have a time frame of Wednesday to Thursday to strengthen. The track from near Andros to the Abacos out to sea still looks o.k. Florida will still be in the gradient for a few more days - at least through Thursday. Expect more beach erosion and high surf.

Next update will be late morning after the vis satellite is in.

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:51 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Late Morning Update

Noel is on the move....

Latest visible satellite imagery seems to show Noel now accerlerating northwest near 22.5N/78.7W or 50-75 miles south-southwest of Andros Island, Bahamas. It still appears that the low-level circulation is on the edge of the convection. Very heavy rain continues into the central Bahamas. The track takes Noel west, then over northern Andros recurving northeastward over the Abacos. The main threat thas been heavy rainfall in the Bahamas with rough seas, especially on the eastern facing beaches. The visible satellite shows Noel moving northwest with the slightest hint of turning more north on the last frame or two. Still expect beach erosion and strong rip currents for the Florida beaches. An addition burst of rain has developed over Hispaniola. An additional 5" or more of rain main fall pushing the total rainfall estimated over 30" locally. This will be Noel's legacy - extreme rainfall and flooding over the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

It is very possible that Noel will reach it's strongest winds off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a Nor'easter as it becomes extrtropical.

NHC's advisory just came in....they bumped winds up to 50 mph. their estimate of position was very close to ours.

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 12:19 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early Afternoon Update

Death toll now up to at least 48 on Hispaniola...

AP news wires say at least 48 have been killed by the flooding rains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. No word of any fatalities with the flooding in eastern Cuba.

It appears that Noel is becoming disjointed again. The visible satellite suggest that the surface low may be in the vicinity of 23.2N/79W. If this is the case, Noel is on a weakening trend. The low level circulation looks a bit diffuse too. No doubt, the Hurricane Hunters are still finding winds to tropical storm force 50-100 miles eastward under the heavy convection.

We believe Noel will be at its strongest off of the Northeast coast into eastern Canada as an extra tropical low.

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 1:42 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Afternoon Update

Visible Satellite revealing its worth :!:

The visible satellite is finally showing exactly where Noel is located. 78.9N/22.6W A small vorticity rotated around the north side of the low. We were a little north on our earlier estimate. It is off of the north coast of Cuba, still southwest of Andros.

More importantly, as mentioned earlier, the low level center is exposed moving away from the convection. Noel is definitely sick. :D If this trend continues, the low may actually separate and weaken. A new low may develop along the front and take the convection with it. The strongest phase will still be when it becomes a Nor'easter in several days.

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 6:23 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Evening Update

Noel is looping...

After watching the visible satellite imagery all day it appears that Noel's center of circulation has been looping off of the north coast of Cuba. Earlier we thought that the satellite was not analyzed correctly as the visible did not show the center well. It now appears that Noel has simply slowed and has looped the past roughly eight hours.

The I.R. shows very deep convection expanding south of Andros Island eastward over the Grat Bahama Bank and toward Great Exuma Island. Also, a hook shape is now visible on the I.R. This probably is over the center. With this analysis, we would say that Noel is finally making an attempt to strengthen. Noel has tried to "kill itself" several times by running over land in Hispaniola and more recently Cuba. There are no more land masses to stop Noel now. What may give Noel problems in the future is increasing southwestly winds aloft.

Expect winds to pick up some in the central Bahamas, very heavy rainfall, and rough seas. For Florida, still expect beach erosion high surf as Noel passes to the east. Tropical Storm watches remain up for southeast Florida.

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 1:47 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Early AM Update

Noel is strengthening, hurricane watch for northwestern Bahamas....

Recon from the past several hours indicated a pressure drop from 997 to 993 MB. At the same time I.R. satellite imagery shows very cold cloud tops near Andros Islands in the vicinity of the center of circulation.

The recon placed the center of circulation just southwest of Andros Island. It appears that the low level center is once again under deep convection. Because of this Noel is likely to strengthen. It is very possible that Noel may make hurricane strength by Thursday afternoon as it moves over Andros and heads across the Abacos. Expect strong winds in the northern Bahamas, choppy seas, high surf and very heavy rain.

Keep an eye on Noel as it moves up the eastern seaboard. Noel will pass abeam of Hatteras on Friday. Waves will build and winds pick up. By Saturday, Noel will move east of Cape Cod. It is going to be a close call with the winds. Its possible that the winds will be tropical storm force or stronger. Noel is expected to be a strong gale center off of New England by Saturday. It is not advisable to be on the seas Saturday. Noel will likely slam into Nova Scotia late Saturday, bringing strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge. Follow this carefully :!:

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 9:26 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Late Morning Update

Little change in strength since late night, hurricane watch northwestern Bahamas.

Last night's run at strengthening abruptly stopped just after our last update. At that point, convection had built around the center and cloud tops had cooled to -90°C/-130°F. It doesn't get much colder than that!
Thunderstorm cloud tops are expanding again at this time. They are still not over the center, which is just southwest of Andros Island. Visible satellite images are starting to come in, but are not much help yet. Top winds remain at 60 mph. This recent collape of thunderstorms may have ended Noel's shot at becoming a hurricane. :D It is moving slowly north and still has time to strengthen again. It would be prudent not to let your guard down in the northern Bahamas.

Noel's track has not changed appreciably, except for being a little slower. Still expect Noel to move over the northern Bahamas and merge with a front. Friday it should be offshore of the South Carolina coast then really accelerate. It will bypass Cape Cod to the east with very gusty winds then likely hit eastern Nova Scotia and into Newfoundland. The strongest part of this system is still going to be the phase in the north Atlantic as a gale center. Boaters beware Saturday. :!:

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 11:33 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Afternoon Update

We apologize if you were unable to reach shortly ago. We just rebooted our server. :oops:

Noel is on the move....

There appears little chance that Noel will be a hurricane in the Bahamas. Hurricane Hunter recon showed a broad and poorly defined surface center earlier today. The convection is still quite deep northeast of the center over the Abacos. The visible satellite shows what appears to be the center near northern Abacos Island - which would be southwest of the recon fix earlier. We're just wondering if the center is so broad and diffuse that this is a vorticity around a very broad low level center. Whatever the case, it shows that the low level circulation is weak and Noel is still disorganized. The Florida east coast erosion will quiet down during Friday. :P

We expect Noel to strengthen into a major northern North Atlantic gale off of the coast of New England and move into Nova Scotia. This is going to be a close call on Cape Cod. Winds will pick up on Cape Hatteras by Friday afternoon and over eastern Massachusetts during Saturday. Down east Maine could also get pretty rough. Nova Scotia looks to take the brunt as well as Newfoundland.

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters especially Saturday off the New England coast!

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 1:54 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Evening Update

Noel is leaving the Bahamas...

Noel is now accelerating from the Bahamas. Recon did find what we described earlier today. The low level center was elongated northeast to southwest. The heavy convection is now northeast of the Abacos.

Winds will pick up on the Outer Banks Friday. Look for rough surf and scattered showers. By Saturday, the gale center will move up the New England coast. Look for rough seas and strong winds. Winds will likely gust over hurricane force. The New England coast will have a rough day Saturday! The gale center will likely make landfall on Nova Scotia late Saturday or early Sunday. Wind damage, heavy rain and storm surge will be likely. The low will move through western Newfoundland on its way to Greenland!

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters especially Saturday off the New England coast!

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 9:56 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Early AM Update

Noel heading up the eastern seaboard...

Noel became a hurricane shortly after leaving the Bahamas. The Hurricane Hunters found stronger flight level winds, so NHC upgraded. It is forecast to become extrtropical by NHC by tomorrow evening. Either way, tropical or extratropical, it will bring rough conditions to the Mid-Atlantic Friday and especially to New England Saturday.

Friday: Expect rough conditions on the Mid-Atlantic coast. The Outer Banks of North Carolina may have seas build to around 15' with winds gusting to 60 mph at times.

Saturday: Noel will be east of Cape Cod. A slight shift in the track would have considerable effect on the conditions. Right now we think winds will gust Saturday to near or over hurricane force at Cape Cod. Seas will build to 15-20'. Expect power outages. Farther west winds will still be gusty in Boston with the worst weather Saturday and gradually improving through the evening into the night. Winds may gust over 50 mph. Look for heavy rain in eastern Massachusetts. The coast of Maine conditions will be even worse, especially down east Maine. Noel will make landfall in Nova Scotia Saturday evening roughly around midnight. Storm surge, wind damage, and power outages are likely

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters especially Saturday off the New England coast!

Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:03 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Late AM Update

Noel already losing tropical characteristics....

The overall scenario has changed very little since last update. The main difference is that Noel is losing tropical characteristics and will be likely called an extratropical cyclone instead of a hurricane. :?: In an extratropical cyclone the wind field spreads out instead of having the wind concentrated around the eye when it is tropical.

Today wind and waves will increase on the Outer Banks. Rain bands are still offshore at this time. The latest forecast models show Noel slightly farther east of Cape Cod on Saturday. That is good, the farther east the better. Since the change is small the effects will only change slightly. This needs to be watched closely into Saturday. The worst of the weather is still be felt Saturday probably from around midday until the evening hours. This will be the greatest threat for strong wind gusts and power outages. Winds still likely to gust near hurricane force on the Cape with gusts around 50 in Boston. The coast of Maine will get hit a bit harder, especially down east Maine. Nova Scotia is still forecast to be the landfall position Saturday evening.

The next update will be this afternoon after the next set of model runs.

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters especially Saturday off the New England coast!

Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 2:45 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Afternoon Update

Noel has become extratropical, taking aim at Nova Scotia...

No doubt NHC will change Noel's designation from hurricane to extratropical cyclone at the 5 pm advisory. Satellite imagery shows that the deep convection has moved well away from the center of circulation as the wind field expands.

The forecast models have not changed much at all. Eastern Massachesettes will have the roughest weather from around midday Saturday into the early evening with slowly improving conditions after that. Winds will be out of the north then swing to the northwest during the evening as Noel moves by. It still looks like gusts near 50 in Boston and near hurricane force at Cape Cod. Nova Scotia still will take the landfall with the central coast getting the largest surge effects.

The next update will be in the early evening.

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters, especially Saturday off of the New England coast!

Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:55 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Evening Update

Noel continues north with little change in intensity, slightly farther west track again.

NHC has written its last advisory on Noel as it is taking on extratropical characteristics. Noel will be east of the Maryland/Deleware coast early Saturday morning. Rain and wind should quickly increase across eastern Long Island and eastern southern New England. Look for north winds to strengthen into the early afternoon. Rain will be heavy from eastern Long Island to coastal southern New England. 2-4" of rain is possible with isolated heavier amounts. The speed of Noel will limit the rainfall accumulation.

By the evening hours, Noel will be east of Cape Cod. The forecast models have zig-zagged again, this time a bit west. As of now, we will stay with our forecast of gusts to around 50 in Boston and hurricance force at Cape Cod. Remember, a slight shift of 50 miles east or west of the predicted track can change conditions considerably :!: Eastern Massachusetts will get the worst condtions from early afternoon into the evening hours. Be ready on the Maine coast too! Down east Maine will get stronger conditions than Cape Cod. The worst conditions there will be late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Landfall will still be on Nova Scotia near the southern tip. The roughest surge will be east of the landfall location.

:idea: Remember, powers outages may occur in eastern New England to Nova Scotia. Have resources available.

The next update will be in the early Saturday AM.

:megaphone: Stay out of the waters, especially Saturday off of the New England coast!

NOTE - The last advisory by the National Hurricane Center was at 5 pm EDT Friday.