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Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:06 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Evening Update

Convection has built rapidly with a tropical wave just a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It has gained organization and may become a tropical storm in the next day or two. It is no threat and will recurve northward into the open Atlantic over the next several days.

Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:01 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Morning Update

T.D. 14 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Melissa. It is just a minimal tropical storm and moving in the open waters of the Atlantic. NHC has is becoming a depression and this seems reasonable since it will be moving into "the shear of death" that has ripped up Karen.

Posted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:04 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Evening Update
Melissa has a little more deep convection than earlier, but is still just a minimal tropical storm. It will likely likely lose strength as it enters shearing winds.

Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:16 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Morning Update
Melissa has strengthened a little to 45 mph. The convective burst is now just past peak, so the a weakening trend is now on the way. It may hold onto tropical storm strength for a day or two before moving into the very strong westerly winds that destroyed Karen.

Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 2:35 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Afternoon Update
Melissa was downgraded earlier to tropical depression. Since then, another convective burst has been active near the center of the low level circulation. Melissa will stay just below or near tropical storm strength and will not threaten land.

Posted: Sun Sep 30, 2007 10:05 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Night Update
NHC has written its last advisory on Melissa. The satellite loop still shows a well developed low level circulation, without convection. We'll still keep an eye on it until the surface low dissipates

Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2007 10:36 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Midday Update

The surface low is still well defined on the visible satellite imagery. Occasional bursts of convection still are near the center. It is doubtful that Melissa will make a come back, but it was probably too early for NHC to drop it yesterday afternoon.

Posted: Mon Oct 01, 2007 5:34 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Evening Update

The surface low continues to very well defined. At this time, it is centered near 17N / 39.5W or about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. With hostile wind shear, no redevelopment is expected any time soon. We will continue to follow Melissa's circulation until it is no longer discernible.

Posted: Tue Oct 02, 2007 2:10 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Early AM Update

The surface low continues westward with no convection. We will keep an eye on it, although redevelopment is unlikely due to the strength of the wind shear. This will be our last advisory unless redevelopment occurs.