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Posted: Tue Sep 25, 2007 6:00 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Evening Update:

Tropical Depression #13 has formed in the southwestern gulf. The heaviest convection is well north of the center, with occasional heavy showers near the center. The low should eventually drift southwest toward Mexico in the general direction of Tampico. At the same time, as the high builds to the north and steers it southwest, it will also allow for strengthening over the next couple of days.

Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 1:50 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early AM Update:

Tropical Depression #13 is struggling. The Hurricane Hunter recently returned a pressure of 1008 mb and max flight winds of 30 mph. This is border t.d. status. It will likely try to become better organized on Wednesday as it drifts south or southwest slowly toward the Mexican coast near Tampico. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat at this point.

Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:43 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Late AM Update:

Tropical Depression #13 has made an amazing turnaround. Heavy convection has exploded over the center of circulation. It surely must be a t.s. by now. NHC will be issuing a new advisory in about 20 minutes It should be upgraded to Lorenzo. It is drifting toward the coast and heavy rainfall will cause localized flash flooding on the Mexican coast from Tampico to maybe 100 miles south.

Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:33 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Late AM Update - Part 2:

NHC didn't pull the trigger and name it yet. They said it has strengthened and is near t.s. strength. A recon is on the way down and we assume that they are waiting for conformation before upgrading to Lorenzo.

Posted: Wed Sep 26, 2007 6:33 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Evening Update:

Tropical Depression #13 is still near t.s. strength. The recon visited and did not find sustained winds of 40 mph. The satellite loop showed good outflow. The burst of convection has quieted but will likely refire later tonight or tomorrow. NHC has it forecast to be a ts soon. It will likely drift into the western Bay of Campeche and come ashore Friday. The main threat will be from flooding rain.

Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:34 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Morning Update:

Tropical Depression #13 is an enigma. Heavy convection has pulsed several times where it looks like it is finally going to develop. After each burst of convection, it quickly fades and looks quite ragged. Convection is once again just starting to burst near the center as it drifts slowly toward the coast.
The Hurricane Hunters have been finding winds just under tropical storm force for 24 hours now. T.D. 13 does not have much time before running into land. With that being said, it still looks plausible that it will become a minimal tropical storm before landfall on the Mexican coast Friday night or early Saturday.

Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:02 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Morning Update:

Here we go again. The convection has increased over T.D. 13. Recon will continue to investigate today. We agree with NHC that it is still just under t.s. strength. It is possible that the convection will continue to increase and finally be named later today. No change in forecast track or impacts - It still should move into Mexico as a t.d. or minimal t.s. bringing locally heavy rain.

Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:43 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Afternoon Update:

The recon finally found stronger winds so we now have Lorenzo. The northern half of the circulation is exposed by northern wind shear. Nonetheless, very deep convection has developed over the center and south. Expect very heavy rainfall on the Mexico coast.

Posted: Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:13 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Evening Update:

Lorenzo has now reached minimal hurricane strength as it nears the coast of Mexico. In a "Humberto" like way, Lorenzo exploded from a t.d. to hurricane in short order. In a similar fashion, it did so just before landfall. Lorenzo is barely offshore and will be moving inland later this evening. There will be some wind damage and power outages near Tuxpan, but Lorenzo will lose strength rapidly. The main threat is life threatening flash floods.

Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 1:49 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Early AM Update:

Lorenzo made landfall a few hours ago. The center of the hurricane was amazingly small. Hurricane force winds probably extended out no more than 10-20 miles from the center! Due to the small wind field only a small surge was expected right of where the center came inland.

Lorenzo will fall apart quickly and as mentioned earlier rainfall will be a big threat. 10-20 inches of rain will not be out of the question due to the slow motion.

Posted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:07 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Late AM Update:

Lorenzo is sitting just inland and continues to produce very heavy rainfall over a large part of the east coast of Mexico. It is down to tropical storm strength and will likely be a depression later sometime today. The threat of life threatening flash floods continues. Some of the rain will drift into south Texas. This will be the last update on Lorenzo.