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Is Jerry trying to form near Florida?

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 1:33 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Early Morning Update

The large area of disturbed weather over Florida the past few days is the result of an upper air low centered west of Tampa. At this time it is NOT tropical in nature. Most upper air lows do not develop into tropical cyclones. This one may be different. The reason is that it wil move slowly over the warm waters of the gulf and may induce a low at the surface. Right now a weak surface low is trying to form in south Florida.
The forecast models all develop a low in the east gulf. Some take it up toward New Orleans others farther west toward Houston. Right now we don't know which track will be correct IF a tropical or tropical system develops. We think that there is a good chance of development in the next couple of days.

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:26 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Midday Update
Heavy showers and storms continue to pound Florida from Cape Canaveral to St. Augustine. The surface low appears to be forming over south Florida today and a tropical or subtropical system is likely to develop over the eastern gulf over the next day or two. There is potential for strengthening as it moves west or northwest. The forecast models are still divergent on the solution with sound taking th low toward the north central gulf and others to the west.

Posted: Wed Sep 19, 2007 5:35 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Evening Update
Latest Satellite Imagery shows a cluster of heavy storms about 100 miles off the coast of Ft Myers, FL. It looks like this is where the low may try to form.

Most forecast models take the tropical/subtropical system northwestward near Louisiana to western Florida by late Friday or Saturday. One of the better models continues to take it farther west toward the upper Texas coast.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:27 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Early AM Update
It appears that the low pressure area is now forming about 100 miles west of Ft. Myers as discussed earlier. Thundershowers are increasing.

The forecast tracks are becoming more clustered with a solution of landfall Saturday anywhere from the western panhandle of Florida to southeast Louisiana. Two of the better models are holding onto a solution of landfall near the Mississippi coast.

At this time we do not know the strength. It is probable that NHC will classify this as a Subtropical or Tropical Storm because there are already winds that have gusted to 40-45 miles per hour - even though they were gradient induced winds. Also, the proximity to land will be a player. Systems tend to be named faster if they are close to the U.S.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:36 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Late AM Update

The visible satellite is now available and indicates that the low is becoming more discernable about 100 miles sw of Tampa.

The models are still presistent in taking the low of some sort northwest toward the northwest Florida coast and keep it offshore until in moves inland near Mississippi or eastsern Louisiana Saturday. The models don't develop the low very much but it still wouldn't take much for NHC to call it a tropical/sutropical storm tonight or tomorrow.

Much needed rain - in some instances too much - fell on Florida's space and 1st coasts. Rainfall deficits for the year have been greatly reduced. It will be a close call for the panhandle. Rain will move in for Friday, but will it be the solid deficit reducing rain fall? Heavy rainbands are forecast to set up near the coast. 50 miles northward would make a huge difference for north Florida.

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:33 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Early AM Update

:!: is sorry about the delay in updates. We had a
server issue which now has been corrected.

The disturbance is centered near 28.6N / 84.5N or about 210 miles southeast of Pensacola, Florida. It is not any more organized than yesterday. The heaviest convection is over the Big Bend of Florida. There is the risk of isolated tornadoes with the bands into Friday. The heavy rain will be welcomed over north Florida, where rainfall deficits for the year are over one foot.

The forecast track has changed little. The low should meander off the north Florida coast Friday and eventually take it to the Mississippi / eastern Louisiana coast by Saturday.

The Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Friday. If the plane finds a wind to 40 mph, NHC will likely name it a subtropical storm. Either way, heavy rain will be the main threat with the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 5:57 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Late AM Update

Subtropical depression 10 continues northwest and is now about 60 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Florida or 210 miles southeast of Pensacola, Florida as of 10:30am edt. Tropical storm warnings are now posted from Apalachicola to the mouth of the Mississippi river.

The depression is slightly more organized and a Hurricane Hunter will investigate later this afternoon. Our thinking is that NHC will probably name this ddepression subtropical storm Jerry later today if the plane finds anything close to 40 mph.

The forecast models do not strengthen this depression much as the upper level energy lifts out. In fact, most of the models have the system weakening tomorrow as it approaches land. Maximum intensity with the tropical cyclone may be tonight or early tomorrow. The main issue as stated before will be localized heavy rain - which would actually be a good thing in most cases.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:23 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Afternoon Update

Subtropical depression 10 is now tropical depression 10 and will likely become tropical storm Jerry later today of this evening.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 4:45 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Evening Update

It looks like T.D. 10 has shifted a bit north and is essentially making landfall near Destin, FL. It's possible that this is a vorticy on the north side of the low. After studying the visible satellite as well as radar imagery it looks like the depression has taken a jog north and is close to the coast of Destin. If this is indeed the case it will curtail further development and T.D. 10's bit to become Jerry will be over. This scenario would be very welcome where the drought stricken areas of the north gulf coast will get rain but no surf or wind damage.

The worst case scenario would be that the low is still a little offshore and stays over water for another 12 hours where it could make tropical storm strength.

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:23 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Friday Late Evening Update

This is the last update on T.D. 10. The Hurricane Center as of the 8pm advisory has agreed that T.D. 10 has made landfall. They have adjusted their track well to the north.

On a side note, it was interesting to see the networks at the beach.....waiting. There was little wind, no big surf, just welcome showers and storms. :)