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Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:32 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Midday Wednesday Update

As we mentioned in our earlier tropical weather discussion, T.D. 9 has actually formed. It looks well on its way to becoming a tropical storm. The question is, will it be Humberto or Ingrid? It is in a race will T.D. 9 to be named. My guess is that since it is so close to the coast, this will be Humberto. The main threat will be heavy rain as it approaches the upper Texas coast late tonight into tomorrow morning. Look for strengthening. It's good that this one will run into land soon.

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 1:39 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday Afternoon Update

T.D. 9 beat T.D. 8 for the race to become the next named system in the Atlantic. Humberto will be short lived. It is only a short way off of the upper Texas coast and will come ashore near Galveston this evening. It is quickly organizing and will likely strengthen before landfall. It will not have enough time to make hurricane strength. The main threat will be flooding rains of 5-10".

Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 3:25 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday AM Update

Well, it looks like Humberto made a minimal theory. It did not have a "hurricane look" to it at all. In fact Humberto resembled a mesoscale vortex if anything. After discussing the matter with other meteorologists overnight tonight, it was our opinion that very few observations will uphold the claimed 85 mph sustained winds at landfall. Typically, one would expect gusts about 15-20% above the sustained winds. That means we should hear of winds that gusted 100-105 mph with this hurricane. Very doubtful. The winds measured by the Hurricane Hunters were no doubt correct, but the winds were probable measured a little above the surface. Our thinking is that there was probably a very large gradient between the surface and where the 85+ mph winds were found. In our opinion, Humberto was probably a 65-70 mph t.s. in actuality.

Humberto made landfall just east of High Island, Texas just after 2 am cdt. Galveston had nearly 5" of rain. The heaviest totals will be likely found in western Louisiana.

Humberto will lose strength quickly and be a rain and possibly a tornado threat into Thursday.

Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 11:56 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Thursday Afternoon Update

Humberto is in west-central Louisiana spreading heavy rain ahead of the low. It will be a blessing to Mississippi and especially Alabama and Georgia as heavy rains will put a dent in the severe drought.

The Hurricane Center said that Humbert was the fastest strengthening of a tropical cyclone from 30 knots to 75 knots. It strengthened 45 knots in 18 hours. As mentioned earlier, Humberto resembled a mesoscale vortex as opposed to a hurricane.

This will be the last update on Humberto other than statistics to verify the strength.

Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 8:35 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Highest wind gusts
Sea Breeze State Park 85 mph
Beaumont-Port Arthur 84 mph

Rain Totals:
East Bay Bayou, TX 14.13"
Winnie,TX 10.71"
Beaumont-Port Arthur,TX 6.23"
Galveston,TX 5.01"