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Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 10:11 am
Midday Wednesday Update
The Hurricane Center did wait for the visible satellite imagery to call T.D. 8 as we suggested earlier in our tropical weather summary. It is well east of the Antilles, but possibly could be a concern to the east coast several days down the road. An upper air trough east of the t.d. may keep it from strenghtening into a hurricane right away. The real problem will be the track. It will move w-nw for a while, then the dilemma will be if it gets picked up by an east coast trough or not. Way too early to tell yet. Right now it may skim a little north of the Leewards, but we need to watch that carefully!
Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 6:27 pm
Wednesday Evening Update
T.D. 8 certainly looks that it is real close to beiing named. I am a bit concerned that it looks to take a track a little farther south than the official NHC track - just north of the Leewards. Most models keep this system in the vicinity of the Leewards or just a bit north in about two days.
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 12:04 pm
Thursday Afternoon Update
T.D. 8 was probably a minimal t.s. overnight. The latest satellite imagery shows an increase in wind shear. The low level center is now exposed with the only convection on the southern side. T.D. 8 is now moving more to the northwest as many of the forecast models suggested. This is good news for the Leewards. Keep an eye on this system. There is still plenty of time for the shear to decrease.
Posted: Thu Sep 13, 2007 8:40 pm
Thursday Evening Update
T.D. 8 once again is trying to make a run at becoming a minimal tropical storm. The shear has relaxed a bit and the convection has built over the center. Even when T.D. 8 reaches tropical storm strength, it will still fight shear for several days.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:48 am
Friday Early Morning Update
T.D. 8 was upgraded to Ingrid as we thought NHC would do per the previous update. The convection is still over the center of circulation and it looks like Ingrid is holding its own.
The track looks to take Ingrid north of the Leewards in a couple of days. The models fan out by the end of day two which leads to a lower confidence forecast. It appears that persistent westerlies may continue to hamper Ingrids development. That is not necessarily a totally a good thing though. If Ingrid remains weak, the low level flow will guide it more west and possibly miss the trough to the north. Several days down the road it is possible that Ingrid would resume a more westerly course again. We will be watching the shear carefully the next couple of days.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 1:26 pm
Friday Afternoon Update
The strong winds aloft are still shearing Ingrid. NHC raised the sustained winds up to 45 mph. It appears that the shear has increased this afternoon again and Ingrid is barely holding on. The only deep convection is on the south side of the circulation. The shear from westerly winds will likely continue for several days.
Some of the better forecast models insist on the turn toward the open Atlantic.
Posted: Fri Sep 14, 2007 8:40 pm
Friday Evening Update
Ingrid was downgraded to 40 mph by NHC. Wind shear is taking its toll on the tropical cyclone. Ingrid will likely barely hold onto ts strength or more likely drop down to a depression as it moves northeast of the Leewards over the next few days.
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:41 am
Saturday Early AM Update
Ingrid is still holding onto deep convection on the south side of the circulation. It appears to be a minimal T.S. even with impressive westerlies aloft. As stated in the previous update it will likely remain at minimal T.S. strength or drop down to depression status if the shear increases like we expect.
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:09 am
Saturday Midday Update
Ingrid is now a depression. Visible satellite indicates that over about the past three or four hours winds aloft have increased and have nearly stripped all convection from Ingrid, execpt for a lone thundershower on its east side.
With the convectin being sheared, we expect Ingrid to follow a more westerly course than the offical NHC track, staying south of their track. If fact its possible that the circulation may nip the Leewards instead of passing well north as the official track indicates. This will not matter though, since winds will continue to shear Ingrid keeping it weak.
Posted: Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:31 pm
Saturday Late Evening Update
NHC mentioned that Ingrid has moved farther west as we had anticipated earlier in the day. Ingrid continues to battle shear. Some deep convection remains on the eastern part of the circulation and some just west of the center. The shear is being caused by a large upper air low with two centers - one north of Ingrid and the other over Hispanolia. Ingrid will struggle the next few days. The only question is if it will still hold together after this point or dissipate.
Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:14 pm
Sunday afternoon Update
Ingrid continues to move more west than NHC has anticipated. We mentioned that this is what may be expected since Ingrid was sheared and being controlled more by the low level flow. Because of this, the northern Leewards may get a few squalls. this will mostly be near Guadeloupe northward. The best chance of seeing squalls will be in Anguilla and Barbuda.
Ingrid is fighting the shear and in our opinion is probably a minimal t.s. again. The convection is over the center again, but appears to be fading a little at this time. It is not out of the question that tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for the northern Leewards if Ingrid's convection around the center persists. Either way, just expect some squally weather movng in tonight into Monday. By the way, NHC does not strengthen Ingrid through the the next several days.
Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2007 4:29 pm
Sunday Evening Update
NHC also noticed the strengthening earlier today and mentioned this in their latest discussion. The cloud tops are now warming, which indicates that the deep convecton near the center has broken up again. Heavy storms continue on the east side of the circulation.
NHC has also taken note that since Ingrid is holding on to convection that it may restrengthen in several days. This was what we we alluding to earlier, that if Ingrid can make it through the sheared environment over the next couple of days that it still may be a threat to the east coast. That is still several days in the future, but is a possibility. Do not give up watching Ingrid
Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2007 10:44 pm
Sunday Late Evening Update
NHC is back to plan "A" saying that Ingrid will not regain T.S. strength in the next five days. The wind shear has picked up and has blown off all of the convection execpt for the far eastern circulation. The occasional storms near the Leewards have faded.
The official track from NHC has Ingrid nipping the Leewards like we suggested may happen several days ago. The shear has allowed the dominate flow to come from the low levels. At the same time, all of the models have done poorly thinking Ingrid was a deeper system.
Ingrid is struggling, but keep an eye on the progress in the Leewards as well as the U.S. east coast and Bermuda/The Bahamas.
Posted: Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:13 am
Monday Morning Update
The wind shear from the last 12 hours has esentially destroyed Ingrid. The first visible satellite images show the weak low a little east of the northern Leewards. The only convection left is a few showers and storms over the northern Leewards and one cluster well on the northern side of the center.
The low should pass near or over Antigua by tonight. Right now, there's not much to be concerned about. NHC has said that they had written their last advisory.
Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:26 am
Tuesday Early AM Update
The remnants of Ingrid are moving north of the Leewards tonight. A few heavy showers and storms are near Guadeloupe and Dominica. They are indirectly associated with this circulation.