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Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:38 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Early AM Update

NHC decided to call the unorganized convection off the southeast coast subtropical storm Gabrielle as of late Friday evening.

Most models take a weak system toward the N.C. coast by midday Sunday. At this time the main impact will be high surf with some beach erosion.

With Gabrielle being a subtropical storm, do not focus on the center of circulation much. The area of disturbed weather can be many miles away.

The satellite imagery indicates the area of showers closest to the coast are under an upper air low....not very conducive for development. The low level center is farther west. By late morning we will be able to tell if the low level characteristics are getting better organized with the Vis satellite.

Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:03 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Afternoon Update
The latest visible satellite imagery indicates that Gabrielle is a very poorly organized system. It is moving slightly east of due north well off the coast. It is sheared badly with the convection on the west side closest to the coast.

Posted: Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:32 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Saturday Late Evening Update
Gabrielle morphed from subtropical to tropical today. Friday night the convection was a widespread arc from the upper low to the west, to a good three or four hundred miles eastward. Today Gabrielle acquired tropical characteristics in which the convection is now located near the surface low itself. It is still a sheared system in which most of the convection is on the western one half of the storm. A couple of rain bands are now offshore of Cape Hatteras southward past Morehead City.

The models have been handling the track very consistently now for a few days. The low should pass close to the Outer Banks then gradually recurve out to sea.

Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 8:08 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Morning Update
Gabrielle is getting a bit better organized although it is still sheared with convection mainly on the southwest side of the circulation. This recent run toward strengthen will likely continue as the deep convection is over the center which is just offshore of Atlantic Beach. As the the latest advisory top sustained winds are 50 mph. The Hurricane Hunter observed that the maximum winds are only a few miles wide from the center (not a large strong wind field)

The present motion will take it over the warm waters of Pamlico sound then more n-ne near Virginia beach by Monday morning. If the center actually stays over the sound strengthening may continue. Just a slightly farther west jog and the strengthening will end or slow.

Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 12:37 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Afternoon Update

Landfall occured just before noon on the outer banks of N.C.

Shear has continued and Gabrielle has not increased in intensity. Deep convection is mostly offshore and on the southside of the system. Don't expect much more as it starts to pull away and accelerate from the coast late tonight into Monday.

Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 3:50 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Sunday Late Afternoon Update
Gabrielle is a low level cloud swirl over the swamps of eastern North Carolina, just west of Pamlico Sound. The convection has been stripped from the center with the only heavy storms well south.

Heavy rain is falling near Cape Lookout and is not moving much. The storm is moving north and should pass near or just east of Virginia Beach.

Posted: Sun Sep 09, 2007 11:08 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Early AM Update

Gabrielle has lost the convection around its center and is a little southeast of Virginia Beach. It will accelerate and move over the open Atlantic Monday.
Rainfall was in a limited band of about 50 miles wide near Cape Lookout. NWS doppler radar extimated a small pocket of 5". The rain bands are now off the coast. The threat from Gabrielle is over.

Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:43 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Monday Late AM Update

Gabrielle is a depression off of the coast of Virginia and is moving e-ne. It is centered 330 miles s-sw of Nantucket, MA. It is only a small concern to mariners at this point. Top sustained winds are 35 mph.

Posted: Mon Sep 10, 2007 9:53 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Tuesday Early AM Update

Gabrielle is a depression off the northeastern U.S. It remains only a minor concern to shipping interests in the north Atlantic. This will be the last update unless restrengthening occurs.