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Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 1:41 pm
Monday afternoon update
Felix is a cat 4 with latest recon showing 953 mb. The trend toward weakening has continued into the mid afternoon. It looks like Felix entrained some dry air in which disturbed its circulation. The cdo (central dense overcast) is not nearly as impressive as early this morning. The western eyewall looks more ragged than earlier.
On its present course, Felix will make landfall in extreme northeastern Nicaragua or maybe on the border with Honduras. It should stay just inland and most likely stay south of the bay of Campeche. NHC has pushed the track just a bit farther south too.
Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed by now!
Posted: Mon Sep 03, 2007 4:24 pm
Monday Evening Update
Felix has weakened today. Top winds are 135 mph. With that being said, it looks like a new strengthening phase has begun. The western eyewall which looked ragged earlier is complete again. Cloud tops are cooling again so it looks like Felix may make landfall in a strengthening cycle.
The track is no different than earlier - extreme northeast Nicaragua or on the border with Honduras by Tuesday morning.
Felix is a dangerous hurricane and preparations need to be completed by sundown and coastal areas need to be evacuated if local officials have called for an evacuation!
Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 2:03 am
Tuesday AM Update
Felix looks to make landfall on the northeast coast of Nicaragua around 7am edt. Unfortunately Felix is unmistakeably going through a strengthening phase. Cloud tops are cooling and the cdo (central dense overcast) is expanding. The eye will be moving near the islands - Cayos Miskitos then on the coast a little north of Puerto Cabezas.
The worst surge will be on the extreme northeast coast of Nicaragua where the shoreline is perpendicular to the wind flow. The worst wind damage will be anywhere where the eyewall comes ashore - the northern 1/2 of the east coast of Nicaragua into extreme northeast Honduras.
Since Felix will stay inland, it should weaken rapidly and become a heavy rain/ flooding threat.
Posted: Tue Sep 04, 2007 10:03 am
Tuesday Midday Update
Well, unfortunately the observations that we made late night came true. The strengthening cycle continured and NHC upgraded Felix at 6:40 edt to a cat 5 with 160 mph winds just before landfall. When the reports come in, the worst wind damage will be from the northern 1/2 of the Nicagarua coast (and inland a ways). The worst surge was experienced in the northeast coast of Nicaragua.
The strength of Felix will drop rapidly now. It is still strong enough that wind will be an issure for the next roughly six hours. Squalls are/will effect Honduras especially on the coast. Belize and Guatemala will mostly have to deal with rain.
Posted: Wed Sep 05, 2007 2:01 am
Wednesday AM Update
This will be the last update on Felix. Felix continues to move across Honduras and Nicaragua. The mid level center will move off the west coast during Wednesday. The threat of flooding rain continues especially in Hounduras and Nicaragua. If Felix happens to regenerate off the west coast of Nicaragua the updates will continue in the Pacific Hurricane forum.