Every hurricane that moves through the Caribbean is NOT going to turn north and hit the U.S.
Even if the eye does not make a direct strike it still can do a lot of destruction. 
The GFDL which is usually a good model cried wolf at a critical time and forecast Dean into the central Gulf of Mexico. NOT! GRADE: D:P The GFS over all did a pretty good job in forecasting the track. It did bounce around some. GRADE: B
:P
The European model was consistent with its track and picked the correct course well in advance. The Euro beat us again! Grade: A