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Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:29 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean now up to 155 mph. Cat 5 starts at 155+ mph. The latest recon pressure is down to 916 mb. Dean is now getting into a rare category with only a handful of hurricanes with pressure that has dropped this low. In comparison, Katrina dropped down to 902 mb at it's lowest.

On the Satellite the worst part of the eye wall appears to be headed for northern Belize and south of Cozumel. Cancun and Cozumel will escape the brunt of this hurricane, although gusty squalls are likely. The eye still looks to go over Chetumal or just north of there ( in Mexico just north of the Belize border ). The worst storm surge will be found over the Mexican peninsula just north of Belize for about 50-75 miles. The wind in Belize will be offshore.

Landfall is coming up soon, sometime just after midnight.

Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:36 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Recon fix now at 914 mb. Dean is officially at cat 5. Flight level gust of 187 mph reported

Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 3:23 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean 9th on the list of strongest Atlantic hurricanes measured by pressure!

Recon reports showed Dean dropped down to 907 mb. The winds from the HNC advisory at 2 am were at 160 mph. It is very likely that Dean's sustained winds were a bit higher between 2-4 am.

The hurricane crossed the island of Cayo Norte and is heading in the general direction of a small town on the mainland call Rio Indo. Chetumal which is the closest big down is getting blasted by the southern eyewall. There will be a lot of wind damage from this hurricane.

Cancun and Cozumel will have some squalls, but overall should be in very good shape.

Dean will move across the Yucatan then into the bay of Campeche where after losing some strength will probably regain major status.

Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:16 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean actually made it it 906 mb. That's still the 9th lowest pressure for an Atlantic hurricane. Dean is now weakening but will restrengthen once it moves back out over the open waters of the bay of Campeche.

After top sustained winds of 165 mph were reported at the 5am advisory. Dean is now down to 105 mph.

Satellite imagery shows that the hurricane is about move over water later today. It you looked at the satellite imagery, you could see how fast the eye has filled in. It is amazing to see the influence of land on a tropical cyclone. Dean appears to be taking a slightly more southern route. Again this is what the European model had forecasted several days ago! This means that Dean will continue to weaken more than originally expected. It's possilbe that Dean will not regain major hurricane status since it will be interacting with land more. Rainfall, not wind and surge will be the bigger issue for the 2nd landfall in Mexico.

Next update later this afternoon or sooner if necessary :!:

Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:54 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean is about to restrengthen again....

At 2 pm edt Dean was estimated to have top sustained winds of 85 mph. Pressure is up to 960 mb! That's up over 50 mb since this morning.

Satellite imagery shows Dean just coming off the Yucatan coast. Extensive rainfall can be seen over the Yucatan peninsula. Expect to see a more symmetrical central dense overcast (clouds surrounding the eye) redeveloping as Dean picks up energy over the bay of Campeche. Why is that important? It means that the heavy rainfall will be spread much farther north again. Flash flooding and mudslides with start to be the dominate player. It is still possible that Dean will reach major status before the next landfall time of tomorrow morning.

Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:26 pm
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean's center of circulation is now out over open water. You can see the structure of the eyewall starting to rebuild. Hurricane hunters will send back new information to NHC for the 8pm edt advisory. (Hurricane Hunters do not fly over land).

next update will be later this evening...

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 1:58 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Wednesday AM

Dean approaching 2nd landfall...

Dean is over the open waters of the bay of Campeche. It has had a remarkable change. The center of circulation is about 50-75 miles wide! The eye is broken at this time to the northwest. Further strengthening will be inhibited until the eye closes off. Also, larger eyes in hurricanes take longer to increase in intensity than smaller ones. Because of this and its proximity to land Dean is likely to make landfall as a cat one or cat two hurricane.

The coastal areas of Mexico near Tuxpan will see the eye. Surge wil be highest near the eye and just to the north. A surge of 6-8 feet is expected with higher waves. The eye wall will be on the coast in the next couple of hours with the eye crossing land later in the morning or near noon.

After this Dean will pose a flooding and mudslide threat in the very mountainous region of central Mexico. It is possible that Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas with get Dean's tropical rain Friday or Saturday as the moisture flows around the high over the southeast.

next update: late Wed morning or sooner if necessary.

Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:41 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean making landfall as a minimal cat 2 with winds of 100 mph...

Dean's large center of circulation filled in since late last evening. The eye is not discernable. The strongest winds and heaviest rains are now coming ashore near Tuxpan. The next 2-3 hours will be the worst, then look for gradual improvement.

Dean's will now start to weaken rapidly. Heavy rainfall which will likely trigger fllooding and mudslides heading into the mountainous portion of central Mexico.

As stated earlier, rain from Dean will circulate around the high to the north and move into Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas late this week into the weekend. It's possible that some moisture from Dean's circulation will move up the Rio Grande valley earlier.

This will be the last update on Dean as the circulation will now fall apart rapidly. Please check back for other developments in the tropics!
Thanks for visiting!

Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:07 am
by Caribbean Traveler
Dean may actually try to reorganize in the Pacific....check Pacific update...